Uncovering Hidden Correctness in LLM Causal Reasoning via Symbolic Verification

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly being applied to tasks that involve causal reasoning. However, current benchmarks often rely on string matching or surface-level metrics that do not capture whether the output of a model is formally valid under the semantics of causal reasoning. To address this, we propose DoVerifier, a simple symbolic verifier that checks whether LLM-generated causal expressions are derivable from a given causal graph using rules from do-calculus and probability theory. This allows us to recover correct answers to causal queries that would otherwise be marked incorrect due to superficial differences in their causal semantics. Our evaluations on synthetic data and causal QA benchmarks show that DoVerifier more accurately captures semantic correctness of causal reasoning traces, offering a more rigorous and informative way to evaluate LLMs on causal reasoning.

Foundations of Global Consistency Checking with Noisy LLM Oracles

Ensuring that collections of natural-language facts are globally consistent is essential for tasks such as fact-checking, summarization, and knowledge base construction. While Large Language Models (LLMs) can assess the consistency of small subsets of facts, their judgments are noisy, and pairwise checks are insufficient to guarantee global coherence. We formalize this problem and show that verifying global consistency requires exponentially many oracle queries in the worst case. To make the task practical, we propose an adaptive divide-and-conquer algorithm that identifies minimal inconsistent subsets (MUSes) of facts and optionally computes minimal repairs through hitting-sets. Our approach has low-degree polynomial query complexity. Experiments with both synthetic and real LLM oracles show that our method efficiently detects and localizes inconsistencies, offering a scalable framework for linguistic consistency verification with LLM-based evaluators.

Likelihood as a Performance Gauge for Retrieval-Augmented Generation

Recent work finds that retrieval-augmented generation with large language models is prone to be influenced by the order of retrieved documents in the context. However, the lack of in-depth analysis limits the use of this phenomenon for prompt engineering in practice. In this study, we posit that likelihoods serve as an effective gauge for language model performance. Through experiments on two question-answering datasets with a variety of state-of-the-art language models, we reveal correlations between answer accuracy and the likelihood of the question at both the corpus level and the instance level. In addition, we find that question likelihood can also indicate the position of the task-relevant information in the context. Based on these findings, we propose two methods that use question likelihood as a gauge for selecting and constructing prompts that lead to better performance. We demonstrate their effectiveness with experiments. In addition, our likelihood-based methods are efficient, as they only need to compute the likelihood of the input, requiring much fewer language model passes than heuristic prompt engineering methods that require generating responses. Our analysis deepens our understanding of how input prompts affect model performance and provides a promising direction for efficient prompt optimization.