HR-Extreme: A High-Resolution Dataset for Extreme Weather Forecasting

The application of large deep learning models in weather forecasting has led to significant advancements in the field, including higher-resolution forecasting and extended prediction periods exemplified by models such as Pangu and Fuxi. Despite these successes, previous research has largely been characterized by the neglect of extreme weather events, and the availability of datasets specifically curated for such events remains limited. Given the critical importance of accurately forecasting extreme weather, this study introduces a comprehensive dataset that incorporates high-resolution extreme weather cases derived from the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) data, a 3-km real-time dataset provided by NOAA. We also evaluate the current state-of-the-art deep learning models and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) systems on HR-Extreme, and provide a improved baseline deep learning model called HR-Heim which has superior performance on both general loss and HR-Extreme compared to others. Our results reveal that the errors of extreme weather cases are significantly larger than overall forecast error, highlighting them as an crucial source of loss in weather prediction. These findings underscore the necessity for future research to focus on improving the accuracy of extreme weather forecasts to enhance their practical utility.

Multi-objective evolutionary GAN for tabular data synthesis

Synthetic data has a key role to play in data sharing by statistical agencies and other generators of statistical data products. Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs), typically applied to image synthesis, are also a promising method for tabular data synthesis. However, there are unique challenges in tabular data compared to images, eg tabular data may contain both continuous and discrete variables and conditional sampling, and, critically, the data should possess high utility and low disclosure risk (the risk of re-identifying a population unit or learning something new about them), providing an opportunity for multi-objective (MO) optimization. Inspired by MO GANs for images, this paper proposes a smart MO evolutionary conditional tabular GAN (SMOE-CTGAN). This approach models conditional synthetic data by applying conditional vectors in training, and uses concepts from MO optimisation to balance disclosure risk against utility. Our results indicate that SMOE-CTGAN is able to discover synthetic datasets with different risk and utility levels for multiple national census datasets. We also find a sweet spot in the early stage of training where a competitive utility and extremely low risk are achieved, by using an Improvement Score. The full code can be downloaded from https://github.com/HuskyNian/SMO\_EGAN\_pytorch.