Game Theory with Simulation in the Presence of Unpredictable Randomisation

AI agents will be predictable in certain ways that traditional agents are not. Where and how can we leverage this predictability in order to improve social welfare? We study this question in a game-theoretic setting where one agent can pay a fixed cost to simulate the other in order to learn its mixed strategy. As a negative result, we prove that, in contrast to prior work on pure-strategy simulation, enabling mixed-strategy simulation may no longer lead to improved outcomes for both players in all so-called "generalised trust games". In fact, mixed-strategy simulation does not help in any game where the simulatee's action can depend on that of the simulator. We also show that, in general, deciding whether simulation introduces Pareto-improving Nash equilibria in a given game is NP-hard. As positive results, we establish that mixed-strategy simulation can improve social welfare if the simulator has the option to scale their level of trust, if the players face challenges with both trust and coordination, or if maintaining some level of privacy is essential for enabling cooperation.

Getting too personal(ized): The importance of feature choice in online adaptive algorithms

Digital educational technologies offer the potential to customize students' experiences and learn what works for which students, enhancing the technology as more students interact with it. We consider whether and when attempting to discover how to personalize has a cost, such as if the adaptation to personal information can delay the adoption of policies that benefit all students. We explore these issues in the context of using multi-armed bandit (MAB) algorithms to learn a policy for what version of an educational technology to present to each student, varying the relation between student characteristics and outcomes and also whether the algorithm is aware of these characteristics. Through simulations, we demonstrate that the inclusion of student characteristics for personalization can be beneficial when those characteristics are needed to learn the optimal action. In other scenarios, this inclusion decreases performance of the bandit algorithm. Moreover, including unneeded student characteristics can systematically disadvantage students with less common values for these characteristics. Our simulations do however suggest that real-time personalization will be helpful in particular real-world scenarios, and we illustrate this through case studies using existing experimental results in ASSISTments. Overall, our simulations show that adaptive personalization in educational technologies can be a double-edged sword: real-time adaptation improves student experiences in some contexts, but the slower adaptation and potentially discriminatory results mean that a more personalized model is not always beneficial.