Decision-Focused Sequential Experimental Design: A Directional Uncertainty-Guided Approach

We consider the sequential experimental design problem in the predict-then-optimize paradigm. In this paradigm, the outputs of the prediction model are used as coefficient vectors in a downstream linear optimization problem. Traditional sequential experimental design aims to control the input variables (features) so that the improvement in prediction accuracy from each experimental outcome (label) is maximized. However, in the predict-then-optimize setting, performance is ultimately evaluated based on the decision loss induced by the downstream optimization, rather than by prediction error. This mismatch between prediction accuracy and decision loss renders traditional decision-blind designs inefficient. To address this issue, we propose a directional-based metric to quantify predictive uncertainty. This metric does not require solving an optimization oracle and is therefore computationally tractable. We show that the resulting sequential design criterion enjoys strong consistency and convergence guarantees. Under a broad class of distributions, we demonstrate that our directional uncertainty-based design attains an earlier stopping time than decision-blind designs. This advantage is further supported by real-world experiments on an LLM job allocation problem.

A Re-solving Heuristic for Dynamic Assortment Optimization with Knapsack Constraints

In this paper, we consider a multi-stage dynamic assortment optimization problem with multi-nomial choice modeling (MNL) under resource knapsack constraints. Given the current resource inventory levels, the retailer makes an assortment decision at each period, and the goal of the retailer is to maximize the total profit from purchases. With the exact optimal dynamic assortment solution being computationally intractable, a practical strategy is to adopt the re-solving technique that periodically re-optimizes deterministic linear programs (LP) arising from fluid approximation. However, the fractional structure of MNL makes the fluid approximation in assortment optimization highly non-linear, which brings new technical challenges. To address this challenge, we propose a new epoch-based re-solving algorithm that effectively transforms the denominator of the objective into the constraint. Theoretically, we prove that the regret (i.e., the gap between the resolving policy and the optimal objective of the fluid approximation) scales logarithmically with the length of time horizon and resource capacities.

Active Learning in the Predict-then-Optimize Framework: A Margin-Based Approach

We develop the first active learning method in the predict-then-optimize framework. Specifically, we develop a learning method that sequentially decides whether to request the "labels" of feature samples from an unlabeled data stream, where the labels correspond to the parameters of an optimization model for decision-making. Our active learning method is the first to be directly informed by the decision error induced by the predicted parameters, which is referred to as the Smart Predict-then-Optimize (SPO) loss. Motivated by the structure of the SPO loss, our algorithm adopts a margin-based criterion utilizing the concept of distance to degeneracy and minimizes a tractable surrogate of the SPO loss on the collected data. In particular, we develop an efficient active learning algorithm with both hard and soft rejection variants, each with theoretical excess risk (i.e., generalization) guarantees. We further derive bounds on the label complexity, which refers to the number of samples whose labels are acquired to achieve a desired small level of SPO risk. Under some natural low-noise conditions, we show that these bounds can be better than the naive supervised learning approach that labels all samples. Furthermore, when using the SPO+ loss function, a specialized surrogate of the SPO loss, we derive a significantly smaller label complexity under separability conditions. We also present numerical evidence showing the practical value of our proposed algorithms in the settings of personalized pricing and the shortest path problem.