Evaluating Bayesian Model Visualisations

Probabilistic models inform an increasingly broad range of business and policy decisions ultimately made by people. Recent algorithmic, computational, and software framework development progress facilitate the proliferation of Bayesian probabilistic models, which characterise unobserved parameters by their joint distribution instead of point estimates. While they can empower decision makers to explore complex queries and to perform what-if-style conditioning in theory, suitable visualisations and interactive tools are needed to maximise users' comprehension and rational decision making under uncertainty. In this paper, propose a protocol for quantitative evaluation of Bayesian model visualisations and introduce a software framework implementing this protocol to support standardisation in evaluation practice and facilitate reproducibility. We illustrate the evaluation and analysis workflow on a user study that explores whether making Boxplots and Hypothetical Outcome Plots interactive can increase comprehension or rationality and conclude with design guidelines for researchers looking to conduct similar studies in the future.

Forward and Inverse models in HCI:Physical simulation and deep learning for inferring 3D finger pose

We outline the role of forward and inverse modelling approaches in the design of human--computer interaction systems. Causal, forward models tend to be easier to specify and simulate, but HCI requires solutions of the inverse problem. We infer finger 3D position $(x,y,z)$ and pose (pitch and yaw) on a mobile device using capacitive sensors which can sense the finger up to 5cm above the screen. We use machine learning to develop data-driven models to infer position, pose and sensor readings, based on training data from: 1. data generated by robots, 2. data from electrostatic simulators 3. human-generated data. Machine learned emulation is used to accelerate the electrostatic simulation performance by a factor of millions. We combine a Conditional Variational Autoencoder with domain expertise/models experimentally collected data. We compare forward and inverse model approaches to direct inference of finger pose. The combination gives the most accurate reported results on inferring 3D position and pose with a capacitive sensor on a mobile device.