Identification and estimation for matrix time series CP-factor models

We investigate the identification and the estimation for matrix time series CP-factor models. Unlike the generalized eigenanalysis-based method of Chang et al. (2023) which requires the two factor loading matrices to be full-ranked, the newly proposed estimation can handle rank-deficient factor loading matrices. The estimation procedure consists of the spectral decomposition of several matrices and a matrix joint diagonalization algorithm, resulting in low computational cost. The theoretical guarantee established without the stationarity assumption shows that the proposed estimation exhibits a faster convergence rate than that of Chang et al. (2023). In fact the new estimator is free from the adverse impact of any eigen-gaps, unlike most eigenanalysis-based methods such as that of Chang et al. (2023). Furthermore, in terms of the error rates of the estimation, the proposed procedure is equivalent to handling a vector time series of dimension $\max(p,q)$ instead of $p \times q$, where $(p, q)$ are the dimensions of the matrix time series concerned. We have achieved this without assuming the "near orthogonality" of the loadings under various incoherence conditions often imposed in the CP-decomposition literature, see Han and Zhang (2022), Han et al. (2024) and the references within. Illustration with both simulated and real matrix time series data shows the usefulness of the proposed approach.

Deep Conditional Generative Learning: Model and Error Analysis

We introduce an Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) based deep generative method for learning a conditional distribution, named the Conditional Follmer Flow. Starting from a standard Gaussian distribution, the proposed flow could efficiently transform it into the target conditional distribution at time 1. For effective implementation, we discretize the flow with Euler's method where we estimate the velocity field nonparametrically using a deep neural network. Furthermore, we derive a non-asymptotic convergence rate in the Wasserstein distance between the distribution of the learned samples and the target distribution, providing the first comprehensive end-to-end error analysis for conditional distribution learning via ODE flow. Our numerical experiments showcase its effectiveness across a range of scenarios, from standard nonparametric conditional density estimation problems to more intricate challenges involving image data, illustrating its superiority over various existing conditional density estimation methods.

Efficiently handling constraints with Metropolis-adjusted Langevin algorithm

In this study, we investigate the performance of the Metropolis-adjusted Langevin algorithm in a setting with constraints on the support of the target distribution. We provide a rigorous analysis of the resulting Markov chain, establishing its convergence and deriving an upper bound for its mixing time. Our results demonstrate that the Metropolis-adjusted Langevin algorithm is highly effective in handling this challenging situation: the mixing time bound we obtain is superior to the best known bounds for competing algorithms without an accept-reject step. Our numerical experiments support these theoretical findings, indicating that the Metropolis-adjusted Langevin algorithm shows promising performance when dealing with constraints on the support of the target distribution.

Modelling matrix time series via a tensor CP-decomposition

We propose to model matrix time series based on a tensor CP-decomposition. Instead of using an iterative algorithm which is the standard practice for estimating CP-decompositions, we propose a new and one-pass estimation procedure based on a generalized eigenanalysis constructed from the serial dependence structure of the underlying process. A key idea of the new procedure is to project a generalized eigenequation defined in terms of rank-reduced matrices to a lower-dimensional one with full-ranked matrices, to avoid the intricacy of the former of which the number of eigenvalues can be zero, finite and infinity. The asymptotic theory has been established under a general setting without the stationarity. It shows, for example, that all the component coefficient vectors in the CP-decomposition are estimated consistently with the different error rates, depending on the relative sizes between the dimensions of time series and the sample size. The proposed model and the estimation method are further illustrated with both simulated and real data; showing effective dimension-reduction in modelling and forecasting matrix time series.