Estimating heterogeneous treatment effect from survival outcomes via (orthogonal) censoring unbiased learning

Methods for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects (HTE) from observational data have largely focused on continuous or binary outcomes, with less attention paid to survival outcomes and almost none to settings with competing risks. In this work, we develop censoring unbiased transformations (CUTs) for survival outcomes both with and without competing risks.After converting time-to-event outcomes using these CUTs, direct application of HTE learners for continuous outcomes yields consistent estimates of heterogeneous cumulative incidence effects, total effects, and separable direct effects. Our CUTs enable application of a much larger set of state of the art HTE learners for censored outcomes than had previously been available, especially in competing risks settings. We provide generic model-free learner-specific oracle inequalities bounding the finite-sample excess risk. The oracle efficiency results depend on the oracle selector and estimated nuisance functions from all steps involved in the transformation. We demonstrate the empirical performance of the proposed methods in simulation studies.

Efficient estimation of weighted cumulative treatment effects by double/debiased machine learning

In empirical studies with time-to-event outcomes, investigators often leverage observational data to conduct causal inference on the effect of exposure when randomized controlled trial data is unavailable. Model misspecification and lack of overlap are common issues in observational studies, and they often lead to inconsistent and inefficient estimators of the average treatment effect. Estimators targeting overlap weighted effects have been proposed to address the challenge of poor overlap, and methods enabling flexible machine learning for nuisance models address model misspecification. However, the approaches that allow machine learning for nuisance models have not been extended to the setting of weighted average treatment effects for time-to-event outcomes when there is poor overlap. In this work, we propose a class of one-step cross-fitted double/debiased machine learning estimators for the weighted cumulative causal effect as a function of restriction time. We prove that the proposed estimators are consistent, asymptotically linear, and reach semiparametric efficiency bounds under regularity conditions. Our simulations show that the proposed estimators using nonparametric machine learning nuisance models perform as well as established methods that require correctly-specified parametric nuisance models, illustrating that our estimators mitigate the need for oracle parametric nuisance models. We apply the proposed methods to real-world observational data from a UK primary care database to compare the effects of anti-diabetic drugs on cancer clinical outcomes.

Stochastically Rank-Regularized Tensor Regression Networks

Over-parametrization of deep neural networks has recently been shown to be key to their successful training. However, it also renders them prone to overfitting and makes them expensive to store and train. Tensor regression networks significantly reduce the number of effective parameters in deep neural networks while retaining accuracy and the ease of training. They replace the flattening and fully-connected layers with a tensor regression layer, where the regression weights are expressed through the factors of a low-rank tensor decomposition. In this paper, to further improve tensor regression networks, we propose a novel stochastic rank-regularization. It consists of a novel randomized tensor sketching method to approximate the weights of tensor regression layers. We theoretically and empirically establish the link between our proposed stochastic rank-regularization and the dropout on low-rank tensor regression. Extensive experimental results with both synthetic data and real world datasets (i.e., CIFAR-100 and the UK Biobank brain MRI dataset) support that the proposed approach i) improves performance in both classification and regression tasks, ii) decreases overfitting, iii) leads to more stable training and iv) improves robustness to adversarial attacks and random noise.