Geometry-Aware Instrumental Variable Regression

Instrumental variable (IV) regression can be approached through its formulation in terms of conditional moment restrictions (CMR). Building on variants of the generalized method of moments, most CMR estimators are implicitly based on approximating the population data distribution via reweightings of the empirical sample. While for large sample sizes, in the independent identically distributed (IID) setting, reweightings can provide sufficient flexibility, they might fail to capture the relevant information in presence of corrupted data or data prone to adversarial attacks. To address these shortcomings, we propose the Sinkhorn Method of Moments, an optimal transport-based IV estimator that takes into account the geometry of the data manifold through data-derivative information. We provide a simple plug-and-play implementation of our method that performs on par with related estimators in standard settings but improves robustness against data corruption and adversarial attacks.

Estimation Beyond Data Reweighting: Kernel Method of Moments

Moment restrictions and their conditional counterparts emerge in many areas of machine learning and statistics ranging from causal inference to reinforcement learning. Estimators for these tasks, generally called methods of moments, include the prominent generalized method of moments (GMM) which has recently gained attention in causal inference. GMM is a special case of the broader family of empirical likelihood estimators which are based on approximating a population distribution by means of minimizing a $\varphi$-divergence to an empirical distribution. However, the use of $\varphi$-divergences effectively limits the candidate distributions to reweightings of the data samples. We lift this long-standing limitation and provide a method of moments that goes beyond data reweighting. This is achieved by defining an empirical likelihood estimator based on maximum mean discrepancy which we term the kernel method of moments (KMM). We provide a variant of our estimator for conditional moment restrictions and show that it is asymptotically first-order optimal for such problems. Finally, we show that our method achieves competitive performance on several conditional moment restriction tasks.

Functional Generalized Empirical Likelihood Estimation for Conditional Moment Restrictions

Important problems in causal inference, economics, and, more generally, robust machine learning can be expressed as conditional moment restrictions, but estimation becomes challenging as it requires solving a continuum of unconditional moment restrictions. Previous works addressed this problem by extending the generalized method of moments (GMM) to continuum moment restrictions. In contrast, generalized empirical likelihood (GEL) provides a more general framework and has been shown to enjoy favorable small-sample properties compared to GMM-based estimators. To benefit from recent developments in machine learning, we provide a functional reformulation of GEL in which arbitrary models can be leveraged. Motivated by a dual formulation of the resulting infinite dimensional optimization problem, we devise a practical method and explore its asymptotic properties. Finally, we provide kernel- and neural network-based implementations of the estimator, which achieve state-of-the-art empirical performance on two conditional moment restriction problems.