Physics-informed linear regression is a competitive approach compared to Machine Learning methods in building MPC

Because physics-based building models are difficult to obtain as each building is individual, there is an increasing interest in generating models suitable for building MPC directly from measurement data. Machine learning methods have been widely applied to this problem and validated mostly in simulation; there are, however, few studies on a direct comparison of different models or validation in real buildings to be found in the literature. Methods that are indeed validated in application often lead to computationally complex non-convex optimization problems. Here we compare physics-informed Autoregressive-Moving-Average with Exogenous Inputs (ARMAX) models to Machine Learning models based on Random Forests and Input Convex Neural Networks and the resulting convex MPC schemes in experiments on a practical building application with the goal of minimizing energy consumption while maintaining occupant comfort, and in a numerical case study. We demonstrate that Predictive Control in general leads to savings between 26% and 49% of heating and cooling energy, compared to the building's baseline hysteresis controller. Moreover, we show that all model types lead to satisfactory control performance in terms of constraint satisfaction and energy reduction. However, we also see that the physics-informed ARMAX models have a lower computational burden, and a superior sample efficiency compared to the Machine Learning based models. Moreover, even if abundant training data is available, the ARMAX models have a significantly lower prediction error than the Machine Learning models, which indicates that the encoded physics-based prior of the former cannot independently be found by the latter.

Distributed Model Predictive Control of Buildings and Energy Hubs

Model predictive control (MPC) strategies can be applied to the coordination of energy hubs to reduce their energy consumption. Despite the effectiveness of these techniques, their potential for energy savings are potentially underutilized due to the fact that energy demands are often assumed to be fixed quantities rather than controlled dynamic variables. The joint optimization of energy hubs and buildings' energy management systems can result in higher energy savings. This paper investigates how different MPC strategies perform on energy management systems in buildings and energy hubs. We first discuss two MPC approaches; centralized and decentralized. While the centralized control strategy offers optimal performance, its implementation is computationally prohibitive and raises privacy concerns. On the other hand, the decentralized control approach, which offers ease of implementation, displays significantly lower performance. We propose a third strategy, distributed control based on dual decomposition, which has the advantages of both approaches. Numerical case studies and comparisons demonstrate that the performance of distributed control is close to the performance of the centralized case, while maintaining a significantly lower computational burden, especially in large-scale scenarios with many agents. Finally, we validate and verify the reliability of the proposed method through an experiment on a full-scale energy hub system in the NEST demonstrator in D\"{u}bendorf, Switzerland.

Input Convex Neural Networks for Building MPC

Model Predictive Control in buildings can significantly reduce their energy consumption. The cost and effort necessary for creating and maintaining first principle models for buildings make data-driven modelling an attractive alternative in this domain. In MPC the models form the basis for an optimization problem whose solution provides the control signals to be applied to the system. The fact that this optimization problem has to be solved repeatedly in real-time implies restrictions on the learning architectures that can be used. Here, we adapt Input Convex Neural Networks that are generally only convex for one-step predictions, for use in building MPC. We introduce additional constraints to their structure and weights to achieve a convex input-output relationship for multistep ahead predictions. We assess the consequences of the additional constraints for the model accuracy and test the models in a real-life MPC experiment in an apartment in Switzerland. In two five-day cooling experiments, MPC with Input Convex Neural Networks is able to keep room temperatures within comfort constraints while minimizing cooling energy consumption.