Contributions to the Decision Theoretic Foundations of Machine Learning and Robust Statistics under Weakly Structured Information

This habilitation thesis is cumulative and, therefore, is collecting and connecting research that I (together with several co-authors) have conducted over the last few years. Thus, the absolute core of the work is formed by the ten publications listed on page 5 under the name Contributions 1 to 10. The references to the complete versions of these articles are also found in this list, making them as easily accessible as possible for readers wishing to dive deep into the different research projects. The chapters following this thesis, namely Parts A to C and the concluding remarks, serve to place the articles in a larger scientific context, to (briefly) explain their respective content on a less formal level, and to highlight some interesting perspectives for future research in their respective contexts. Naturally, therefore, the following presentation has neither the level of detail nor the formal rigor that can (hopefully) be found in the papers. The purpose of the following text is to provide the reader an easy and high-level access to this interesting and important research field as a whole, thereby, advertising it to a broader audience.

Reciprocal Learning

We demonstrate that a wide array of machine learning algorithms are specific instances of one single paradigm: reciprocal learning. These instances range from active learning over multi-armed bandits to self-training. We show that all these algorithms do not only learn parameters from data but also vice versa: They iteratively alter training data in a way that depends on the current model fit. We introduce reciprocal learning as a generalization of these algorithms using the language of decision theory. This allows us to study under what conditions they converge. The key is to guarantee that reciprocal learning contracts such that the Banach fixed-point theorem applies. In this way, we find that reciprocal learning algorithms converge at linear rates to an approximately optimal model under relatively mild assumptions on the loss function, if their predictions are probabilistic and the sample adaption is both non-greedy and either randomized or regularized. We interpret these findings and provide corollaries that relate them to specific active learning, self-training, and bandit algorithms.

Statistical Multicriteria Benchmarking via the GSD-Front

Given the vast number of classifiers that have been (and continue to be) proposed, reliable methods for comparing them are becoming increasingly important. The desire for reliability is broken down into three main aspects: (1) Comparisons should allow for different quality metrics simultaneously. (2) Comparisons should take into account the statistical uncertainty induced by the choice of benchmark suite. (3) The robustness of the comparisons under small deviations in the underlying assumptions should be verifiable. To address (1), we propose to compare classifiers using a generalized stochastic dominance ordering (GSD) and present the GSD-front as an information-efficient alternative to the classical Pareto-front. For (2), we propose a consistent statistical estimator for the GSD-front and construct a statistical test for whether a (potentially new) classifier lies in the GSD-front of a set of state-of-the-art classifiers. For (3), we relax our proposed test using techniques from robust statistics and imprecise probabilities. We illustrate our concepts on the benchmark suite PMLB and on the platform OpenML.

Semi-Supervised Learning guided by the Generalized Bayes Rule under Soft Revision

We provide a theoretical and computational investigation of the Gamma-Maximin method with soft revision, which was recently proposed as a robust criterion for pseudo-label selection (PLS) in semi-supervised learning. Opposed to traditional methods for PLS we use credal sets of priors ("generalized Bayes") to represent the epistemic modeling uncertainty. These latter are then updated by the Gamma-Maximin method with soft revision. We eventually select pseudo-labeled data that are most likely in light of the least favorable distribution from the so updated credal set. We formalize the task of finding optimal pseudo-labeled data w.r.t. the Gamma-Maximin method with soft revision as an optimization problem. A concrete implementation for the class of logistic models then allows us to compare the predictive power of the method with competing approaches. It is observed that the Gamma-Maximin method with soft revision can achieve very promising results, especially when the proportion of labeled data is low.

Comparing Machine Learning Algorithms by Union-Free Generic Depth

We propose a framework for descriptively analyzing sets of partial orders based on the concept of depth functions. Despite intensive studies in linear and metric spaces, there is very little discussion on depth functions for non-standard data types such as partial orders. We introduce an adaptation of the well-known simplicial depth to the set of all partial orders, the union-free generic (ufg) depth. Moreover, we utilize our ufg depth for a comparison of machine learning algorithms based on multidimensional performance measures. Concretely, we provide two examples of classifier comparisons on samples of standard benchmark data sets. Our results demonstrate promisingly the wide variety of different analysis approaches based on ufg methods. Furthermore, the examples outline that our approach differs substantially from existing benchmarking approaches, and thus adds a new perspective to the vivid debate on classifier comparison.

Robust Statistical Comparison of Random Variables with Locally Varying Scale of Measurement

Spaces with locally varying scale of measurement, like multidimensional structures with differently scaled dimensions, are pretty common in statistics and machine learning. Nevertheless, it is still understood as an open question how to exploit the entire information encoded in them properly. We address this problem by considering an order based on (sets of) expectations of random variables mapping into such non-standard spaces. This order contains stochastic dominance and expectation order as extreme cases when no, or respectively perfect, cardinal structure is given. We derive a (regularized) statistical test for our proposed generalized stochastic dominance (GSD) order, operationalize it by linear optimization, and robustify it by imprecise probability models. Our findings are illustrated with data from multidimensional poverty measurement, finance, and medicine.

Depth Functions for Partial Orders with a Descriptive Analysis of Machine Learning Algorithms

We propose a framework for descriptively analyzing sets of partial orders based on the concept of depth functions. Despite intensive studies of depth functions in linear and metric spaces, there is very little discussion on depth functions for non-standard data types such as partial orders. We introduce an adaptation of the well-known simplicial depth to the set of all partial orders, the union-free generic (ufg) depth. Moreover, we utilize our ufg depth for a comparison of machine learning algorithms based on multidimensional performance measures. Concretely, we analyze the distribution of different classifier performances over a sample of standard benchmark data sets. Our results promisingly demonstrate that our approach differs substantially from existing benchmarking approaches and, therefore, adds a new perspective to the vivid debate on the comparison of classifiers.

In all LikelihoodS: How to Reliably Select Pseudo-Labeled Data for Self-Training in Semi-Supervised Learning

Self-training is a simple yet effective method within semi-supervised learning. The idea is to iteratively enhance training data by adding pseudo-labeled data. Its generalization performance heavily depends on the selection of these pseudo-labeled data (PLS). In this paper, we aim at rendering PLS more robust towards the involved modeling assumptions. To this end, we propose to select pseudo-labeled data that maximize a multi-objective utility function. The latter is constructed to account for different sources of uncertainty, three of which we discuss in more detail: model selection, accumulation of errors and covariate shift. In the absence of second-order information on such uncertainties, we furthermore consider the generic approach of the generalized Bayesian alpha-cut updating rule for credal sets. As a practical proof of concept, we spotlight the application of three of our robust extensions on simulated and real-world data. Results suggest that in particular robustness w.r.t. model choice can lead to substantial accuracy gains.

Multi-Target Decision Making under Conditions of Severe Uncertainty

The quality of consequences in a decision making problem under (severe) uncertainty must often be compared among different targets (goals, objectives) simultaneously. In addition, the evaluations of a consequence's performance under the various targets often differ in their scale of measurement, classically being either purely ordinal or perfectly cardinal. In this paper, we transfer recent developments from abstract decision theory with incomplete preferential and probabilistic information to this multi-target setting and show how -- by exploiting the (potentially) partial cardinal and partial probabilistic information -- more informative orders for comparing decisions can be given than the Pareto order. We discuss some interesting properties of the proposed orders between decision options and show how they can be concretely computed by linear optimization. We conclude the paper by demonstrating our framework in an artificial (but quite real-world) example in the context of comparing algorithms under different performance measures.

Statistical Comparisons of Classifiers by Generalized Stochastic Dominance

Although being a question in the very methodological core of machine learning, there is still no unanimous consensus on how to compare classifiers. Every comparison framework is confronted with (at least) three fundamental challenges: the multiplicity of quality criteria, the multiplicity of data sets and the randomness/arbitrariness of the selection of data sets. In this paper, we add a fresh view to the vivid debate by adopting recent developments in decision theory. Our resulting framework, based on so-called preference systems, ranks classifiers by a generalized concept of stochastic dominance, which powerfully circumvents the cumbersome, and often even self-contradictory, reliance on aggregates. Moreover, we show that generalized stochastic dominance can be operationalized by solving easy-to-handle linear programs and statistically tested by means of an adapted two-sample observation-randomization test. This indeed yields a powerful framework for the statistical comparison of classifiers with respect to multiple quality criteria simultaneously. We illustrate and investigate our framework in a simulation study and with standard benchmark data sets.