Bayesian Deep Learning Approach for Real-time Lane-based Arrival Curve Reconstruction at Intersection using License Plate Recognition Data

The acquisition of real-time and accurate traffic arrival information is of vital importance for proactive traffic control systems, especially in partially connected vehicle environments. License plate recognition (LPR) data that record both vehicle departures and identities are proven to be desirable in reconstructing lane-based arrival curves in previous works. Existing LPR databased methods are predominantly designed for reconstructing historical arrival curves. For real-time reconstruction of multi-lane urban roads, it is pivotal to determine the lane choice of real-time link-based arrivals, which has not been exploited in previous studies. In this study, we propose a Bayesian deep learning approach for real-time lane-based arrival curve reconstruction, in which the lane choice patterns and uncertainties of link-based arrivals are both characterized. Specifically, the learning process is designed to effectively capture the relationship between partially observed link-based arrivals and lane-based arrivals, which can be physically interpreted as lane choice proportion. Moreover, the lane choice uncertainties are characterized using Bayesian parameter inference techniques, minimizing arrival curve reconstruction uncertainties, especially in low LPR data matching rate conditions. Real-world experiment results conducted in multiple matching rate scenarios demonstrate the superiority and necessity of lane choice modeling in reconstructing arrival curves.

A Parameter-free Nonconvex Low-rank Tensor Completion Model for Spatiotemporal Traffic Data Recovery

Traffic data chronically suffer from missing and corruption, leading to accuracy and utility reduction in subsequent Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) applications. Noticing the inherent low-rank property of traffic data, numerous studies formulated missing traffic data recovery as a low-rank tensor completion (LRTC) problem. Due to the non-convexity and discreteness of the rank minimization in LRTC, existing methods either replaced rank with convex surrogates that are quite far away from the rank function or approximated rank with nonconvex surrogates involving many parameters. In this study, we proposed a Parameter-Free Non-Convex Tensor Completion model (TC-PFNC) for traffic data recovery, in which a log-based relaxation term was designed to approximate tensor algebraic rank. Moreover, previous studies usually assumed the observations are reliable without any outliers. Therefore, we extended the TC-PFNC to a robust version (RTC-PFNC) by modeling potential traffic data outliers, which can recover the missing value from partial and corrupted observations and remove the anomalies in observations. The numerical solutions of TC-PFNC and RTC-PFNC were elaborated based on the alternating direction multiplier method (ADMM). The extensive experimental results conducted on four real-world traffic data sets demonstrated that the proposed methods outperform other state-of-the-art methods in both missing and corrupted data recovery. The code used in this paper is available at: https://github.com/YoungHe49/T-ITSPFNC.