Time-Series Forecasting in Smart Manufacturing Systems: An Experimental Evaluation of the State-of-the-art Algorithms

TSF is growing in various domains including manufacturing. Although numerous TSF algorithms have been developed recently, the validation and evaluation of algorithms hold substantial value for researchers and practitioners and are missing. This study aims to fill this gap by evaluating the SoTA TSF algorithms on thirteen manufacturing datasets, focusing on their applicability in manufacturing. Each algorithm was selected based on its TSF category to ensure a representative set of algorithms. The evaluation includes different scenarios to evaluate the models using two problem categories and two forecasting horizons. To evaluate the performance, the WAPE was calculated, and additional post hoc analyses were conducted to assess the significance of observed differences. Only algorithms with codes from open-source libraries were utilized, and no hyperparameter tuning was done. This allowed us to evaluate the algorithms as "out-of-the-box" solutions that can be easily implemented, ensuring their usability within the manufacturing by practitioners with limited technical knowledge. This aligns to facilitate the adoption of these techniques in smart manufacturing systems. Based on the results, transformer and MLP-based architectures demonstrated the best performance with MLP-based architecture winning the most scenarios. For univariate TSF, PatchTST emerged as the most robust, particularly for long-term horizons, while for multivariate problems, MLP-based architectures like N-HITS and TiDE showed superior results. The study revealed that simpler algorithms like XGBoost could outperform complex algorithms in certain tasks. These findings challenge the assumption that more sophisticated models produce better results. Additionally, the research highlighted the importance of computational resource considerations, showing variations in runtime and memory usage across different algorithms.

A Data-Efficient Sequential Learning Framework for Melt Pool Defect Classification in Laser Powder Bed Fusion

Ensuring the quality and reliability of Metal Additive Manufacturing (MAM) components is crucial, especially in the Laser Powder Bed Fusion (L-PBF) process, where melt pool defects such as keyhole, balling, and lack of fusion can significantly compromise structural integrity. This study presents SL-RF+ (Sequentially Learned Random Forest with Enhanced Sampling), a novel Sequential Learning (SL) framework for melt pool defect classification designed to maximize data efficiency and model accuracy in data-scarce environments. SL-RF+ utilizes RF classifier combined with Least Confidence Sampling (LCS) and Sobol sequence-based synthetic sampling to iteratively select the most informative samples to learn from, thereby refining the model's decision boundaries with minimal labeled data. Results show that SL-RF+ outperformed traditional machine learning models across key performance metrics, including accuracy, precision, recall, and F1 score, demonstrating significant robustness in identifying melt pool defects with limited data. This framework efficiently captures complex defect patterns by focusing on high-uncertainty regions in the process parameter space, ultimately achieving superior classification performance without the need for extensive labeled datasets. While this study utilizes pre-existing experimental data, SL-RF+ shows strong potential for real-world applications in pure sequential learning settings, where data is acquired and labeled incrementally, mitigating the high costs and time constraints of sample acquisition.