Conversion Rate Prediction via Post-Click Behaviour Modeling

Effective and efficient recommendation is crucial for modern e-commerce platforms. It consists of two indispensable components named Click-Through Rate (CTR) prediction and Conversion Rate (CVR) prediction, where the latter is an essential factor contributing to the final purchasing volume. Existing methods specifically predict CVR using the clicked and purchased samples, which has limited performance affected by the well-known sample selection bias and data sparsity issues. To address these issues, we propose a novel deep CVR prediction method by considering the post-click behaviors. After grouping deterministic actions together, we construct a novel sequential path, which elaborately depicts the post-click behaviors of users. Based on the path, we define the CVR and several related probabilities including CTR, etc., and devise a deep neural network with multiple targets involved accordingly. It takes advantage of the abundant samples with deterministic labels derived from the post-click actions, leading to a significant improvement of CVR prediction. Extensive experiments on both offline and online settings demonstrate its superiority over representative state-of-the-art methods.