FSMLP: Modelling Channel Dependencies With Simplex Theory Based Multi-Layer Perceptions In Frequency Domain

Time series forecasting (TSF) plays a crucial role in various domains, including web data analysis, energy consumption prediction, and weather forecasting. While Multi-Layer Perceptrons (MLPs) are lightweight and effective for capturing temporal dependencies, they are prone to overfitting when used to model inter-channel dependencies. In this paper, we investigate the overfitting problem in channel-wise MLPs using Rademacher complexity theory, revealing that extreme values in time series data exacerbate this issue. To mitigate this issue, we introduce a novel Simplex-MLP layer, where the weights are constrained within a standard simplex. This strategy encourages the model to learn simpler patterns and thereby reducing overfitting to extreme values. Based on the Simplex-MLP layer, we propose a novel \textbf{F}requency \textbf{S}implex \textbf{MLP} (FSMLP) framework for time series forecasting, comprising of two kinds of modules: \textbf{S}implex \textbf{C}hannel-\textbf{W}ise MLP (SCWM) and \textbf{F}requency \textbf{T}emporal \textbf{M}LP (FTM). The SCWM effectively leverages the Simplex-MLP to capture inter-channel dependencies, while the FTM is a simple yet efficient temporal MLP designed to extract temporal information from the data. Our theoretical analysis shows that the upper bound of the Rademacher Complexity for Simplex-MLP is lower than that for standard MLPs. Moreover, we validate our proposed method on seven benchmark datasets, demonstrating significant improvements in forecasting accuracy and efficiency, while also showcasing superior scalability. Additionally, we demonstrate that Simplex-MLP can improve other methods that use channel-wise MLP to achieve less overfitting and improved performance. Code are available \href{https://github.com/FMLYD/FSMLP}{\textcolor{red}{here}}.

FTMixer: Frequency and Time Domain Representations Fusion for Time Series Modeling

Time series data can be represented in both the time and frequency domains, with the time domain emphasizing local dependencies and the frequency domain highlighting global dependencies. To harness the strengths of both domains in capturing local and global dependencies, we propose the Frequency and Time Domain Mixer (FTMixer). To exploit the global characteristics of the frequency domain, we introduce the Frequency Channel Convolution (FCC) module, designed to capture global inter-series dependencies. Inspired by the windowing concept in frequency domain transformations, we present the Windowing Frequency Convolution (WFC) module to capture local dependencies. The WFC module first applies frequency transformation within each window, followed by convolution across windows. Furthermore, to better capture these local dependencies, we employ channel-independent scheme to mix the time domain and frequency domain patches. Notably, FTMixer employs the Discrete Cosine Transformation (DCT) with real numbers instead of the complex-number-based Discrete Fourier Transformation (DFT), enabling direct utilization of modern deep learning operators in the frequency domain. Extensive experimental results across seven real-world long-term time series datasets demonstrate the superiority of FTMixer, in terms of both forecasting performance and computational efficiency.