Can Competition Enhance the Proficiency of Agents Powered by Large Language Models in the Realm of News-driven Time Series Forecasting?

Multi-agents-based news-driven time series forecasting is considered as a potential paradigm shift in the era of large language models (LLMs). The challenge of this task lies in measuring the influences of different news events towards the fluctuations of time series. This requires agents to possess stronger abilities of innovative thinking and the identifying misleading logic. However, the existing multi-agent discussion framework has limited enhancement on time series prediction in terms of optimizing these two capabilities. Inspired by the role of competition in fostering innovation, this study embeds a competition mechanism within the multi-agent discussion to enhance agents' capability of generating innovative thoughts. Furthermore, to bolster the model's proficiency in identifying misleading information, we incorporate a fine-tuned small-scale LLM model within the reflective stage, offering auxiliary decision-making support. Experimental results confirm that the competition can boost agents' capacity for innovative thinking, which can significantly improve the performances of time series prediction. Similar to the findings of social science, the intensity of competition within this framework can influence the performances of agents, providing a new perspective for studying LLMs-based multi-agent systems.

Structuring Scientific Innovation: A Framework for Modeling and Discovering Impactful Knowledge Combinations

The emergence of large language models offers new possibilities for structured exploration of scientific knowledge. Rather than viewing scientific discovery as isolated ideas or content, we propose a structured approach that emphasizes the role of method combinations in shaping disruptive insights. Specifically, we investigate how knowledge unit--especially those tied to methodological design--can be modeled and recombined to yield research breakthroughs. Our proposed framework addresses two key challenges. First, we introduce a contrastive learning-based mechanism to identify distinguishing features of historically disruptive method combinations within problem-driven contexts. Second, we propose a reasoning-guided Monte Carlo search algorithm that leverages the chain-of-thought capability of LLMs to identify promising knowledge recombinations for new problem statements.Empirical studies across multiple domains show that the framework is capable of modeling the structural dynamics of innovation and successfully highlights combinations with high disruptive potential. This research provides a new path for computationally guided scientific ideation grounded in structured reasoning and historical data modeling.