Machine Learning-enhanced Realistic Framework for Real-time Seismic Monitoring -- The Winning Solution of the 2017 International Aftershock Detection Contest

Identifying the arrival times of seismic P-phases plays a significant role in real-time seismic monitoring, which provides critical guidance for emergency response activities. While considerable research has been conducted on this topic, efficiently capturing the arrival times of seismic P-phases hidden within intensively distributed and noisy seismic waves, such as those generated by the aftershocks of destructive earthquakes, remains a real challenge since existing methods rely on laborious expert supervision. To this end, in this paper, we present a machine learning-enhanced framework, ML-Picker, for the automatic identification of seismic P-phase arrivals on continuous and massive waveforms. More specifically, ML-Picker consists of three modules, namely, Trigger, Classifier, and Refiner, and an ensemble learning strategy is exploited to integrate several machine learning classifiers. An evaluation of the aftershocks following the $M8.0$ Wenchuan earthquake demonstrates that ML-Picker can not only achieve the best identification performance but also identify 120% more seismic P-phase arrivals as complementary data. Meanwhile, experimental results also reveal both the applicability of different machine learning models for waveforms collected from different seismic stations and the regularities of seismic P-phase arrivals that might be neglected during manual inspection. These findings clearly validate the effectiveness, efficiency, flexibility and stability of ML-Picker. In particular, with the preliminary version of ML-Picker, we won the championship in the First Season and were the runner-up in the Finals of the 2017 International Aftershock Detection Contest hosted by the China Earthquake Administration, in which 1,143 teams participated from around the world.