Calibrating Deep Neural Network using Euclidean Distance

Uncertainty is a fundamental aspect of real-world scenarios, where perfect information is rarely available. Humans naturally develop complex internal models to navigate incomplete data and effectively respond to unforeseen or partially observed events. In machine learning, Focal Loss is commonly used to reduce misclassification rates by emphasizing hard-to-classify samples. However, it does not guarantee well-calibrated predicted probabilities and may result in models that are overconfident or underconfident. High calibration error indicates a misalignment between predicted probabilities and actual outcomes, affecting model reliability. This research introduces a novel loss function called Focal Calibration Loss (FCL), designed to improve probability calibration while retaining the advantages of Focal Loss in handling difficult samples. By minimizing the Euclidean norm through a strictly proper loss, FCL penalizes the instance-wise calibration error and constrains bounds. We provide theoretical validation for proposed method and apply it to calibrate CheXNet for potential deployment in web-based health-care systems. Extensive evaluations on various models and datasets demonstrate that our method achieves SOTA performance in both calibration and accuracy metrics.

Correlation Analysis of Adversarial Attack in Time Series Classification

This study investigates the vulnerability of time series classification models to adversarial attacks, with a focus on how these models process local versus global information under such conditions. By leveraging the Normalized Auto Correlation Function (NACF), an exploration into the inclination of neural networks is conducted. It is demonstrated that regularization techniques, particularly those employing Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) methods and targeting frequency components of perturbations, markedly enhance the effectiveness of attacks. Meanwhile, the defense strategies, like noise introduction and Gaussian filtering, are shown to significantly lower the Attack Success Rate (ASR), with approaches based on noise introducing notably effective in countering high-frequency distortions. Furthermore, models designed to prioritize global information are revealed to possess greater resistance to adversarial manipulations. These results underline the importance of designing attack and defense mechanisms, informed by frequency domain analysis, as a means to considerably reinforce the resilience of neural network models against adversarial threats.

Enhancing Financial Market Predictions: Causality-Driven Feature Selection

This paper introduces the FinSen dataset that revolutionizes financial market analysis by integrating economic and financial news articles from 197 countries with stock market data. The dataset's extensive coverage spans 15 years from 2007 to 2023 with temporal information, offering a rich, global perspective with 160,000 records on financial market news. Our study leverages causally validated sentiment scores and LSTM models to enhance market forecast accuracy and reliability. Utilizing the FinSen dataset, we introduce an innovative Focal Calibration Loss, reducing Expected Calibration Error (ECE) to 3.34 percent with the DAN 3 model. This not only improves prediction accuracy but also aligns probabilistic forecasts closely with real outcomes, crucial for the financial sector where predicted probability is paramount. Our approach demonstrates the effectiveness of combining sentiment analysis with precise calibration techniques for trustworthy financial forecasting where the cost of misinterpretation can be high. Finsen Data can be found at [this github URL](https://github.com/EagleAdelaide/FinSen_Dataset.git).