Irregularity-Informed Time Series Analysis: Adaptive Modelling of Spatial and Temporal Dynamics

Irregular Time Series Data (IRTS) has shown increasing prevalence in real-world applications. We observed that IRTS can be divided into two specialized types: Natural Irregular Time Series (NIRTS) and Accidental Irregular Time Series (AIRTS). Various existing methods either ignore the impacts of irregular patterns or statically learn the irregular dynamics of NIRTS and AIRTS data and suffer from limited data availability due to the sparsity of IRTS. We proposed a novel transformer-based framework for general irregular time series data that treats IRTS from four views: Locality, Time, Spatio and Irregularity to motivate the data usage to the highest potential. Moreover, we design a sophisticated irregularity-gate mechanism to adaptively select task-relevant information from irregularity, which improves the generalization ability to various IRTS data. We implement extensive experiments to demonstrate the resistance of our work to three highly missing ratio datasets (88.4\%, 94.9\%, 60\% missing value) and investigate the significance of the irregularity information for both NIRTS and AIRTS by additional ablation study. We release our implementation in https://github.com/IcurasLW/MTSFormer-Irregular_Time_Series.git

Revisited Large Language Model for Time Series Analysis through Modality Alignment

Large Language Models have demonstrated impressive performance in many pivotal web applications such as sensor data analysis. However, since LLMs are not designed for time series tasks, simpler models like linear regressions can often achieve comparable performance with far less complexity. In this study, we perform extensive experiments to assess the effectiveness of applying LLMs to key time series tasks, including forecasting, classification, imputation, and anomaly detection. We compare the performance of LLMs against simpler baseline models, such as single-layer linear models and randomly initialized LLMs. Our results reveal that LLMs offer minimal advantages for these core time series tasks and may even distort the temporal structure of the data. In contrast, simpler models consistently outperform LLMs while requiring far fewer parameters. Furthermore, we analyze existing reprogramming techniques and show, through data manifold analysis, that these methods fail to effectively align time series data with language and display pseudo-alignment behaviour in embedding space. Our findings suggest that the performance of LLM-based methods in time series tasks arises from the intrinsic characteristics and structure of time series data, rather than any meaningful alignment with the language model architecture.