Flying in air ducts

Air ducts are integral to modern buildings but are challenging to access for inspection. Small quadrotor drones offer a potential solution, as they can navigate both horizontal and vertical sections and smoothly fly over debris. However, hovering inside air ducts is problematic due to the airflow generated by the rotors, which recirculates inside the duct and destabilizes the drone, whereas hovering is a key feature for many inspection missions. In this article, we map the aerodynamic forces that affect a hovering drone in a duct using a robotic setup and a force/torque sensor. Based on the collected aerodynamic data, we identify a recommended position for stable flight, which corresponds to the bottom third for a circular duct. We then develop a neural network-based positioning system that leverages low-cost time-of-flight sensors. By combining these aerodynamic insights and the data-driven positioning system, we show that a small quadrotor drone (here, 180 mm) can hover and fly inside small air ducts, starting with a diameter of 350 mm. These results open a new and promising application domain for drones.

Evidential Deep Learning: Enhancing Predictive Uncertainty Estimation for Earth System Science Applications

Robust quantification of predictive uncertainty is critical for understanding factors that drive weather and climate outcomes. Ensembles provide predictive uncertainty estimates and can be decomposed physically, but both physics and machine learning ensembles are computationally expensive. Parametric deep learning can estimate uncertainty with one model by predicting the parameters of a probability distribution but do not account for epistemic uncertainty.. Evidential deep learning, a technique that extends parametric deep learning to higher-order distributions, can account for both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty with one model. This study compares the uncertainty derived from evidential neural networks to those obtained from ensembles. Through applications of classification of winter precipitation type and regression of surface layer fluxes, we show evidential deep learning models attaining predictive accuracy rivaling standard methods, while robustly quantifying both sources of uncertainty. We evaluate the uncertainty in terms of how well the predictions are calibrated and how well the uncertainty correlates with prediction error. Analyses of uncertainty in the context of the inputs reveal sensitivities to underlying meteorological processes, facilitating interpretation of the models. The conceptual simplicity, interpretability, and computational efficiency of evidential neural networks make them highly extensible, offering a promising approach for reliable and practical uncertainty quantification in Earth system science modeling. In order to encourage broader adoption of evidential deep learning in Earth System Science, we have developed a new Python package, MILES-GUESS (https://github.com/ai2es/miles-guess), that enables users to train and evaluate both evidential and ensemble deep learning.