Hurricane Forecasting: A Novel Multimodal Machine Learning Framework

This paper describes a machine learning (ML) framework for tropical cyclone intensity and track forecasting, combining multiple distinct ML techniques and utilizing diverse data sources. Our framework, which we refer to as Hurricast (HURR), is built upon the combination of distinct data processing techniques using gradient-boosted trees and novel encoder-decoder architectures, including CNN, GRU and Transformers components. We propose a deep-feature extractor methodology to mix spatial-temporal data with statistical data efficiently. Our multimodal framework unleashes the potential of making forecasts based on a wide range of data sources, including historical storm data, reanalysis atmospheric images, and operational forecasts. Evaluating our models with current operational forecasts in North Atlantic and Eastern Pacific basins on the last years of available data, results show our models consistently outperform statistical-dynamical models and, albeit less accurate than the best dynamical models, our framework computes forecasts in seconds. Furthermore, the inclusion of Hurricast into an operational forecast consensus model leads to a significant improvement of 5% - 15% over NHC's official forecast, thus highlighting the complementary properties with existing approaches. In summary, our work demonstrates that combining different data sources and distinct machine learning methodologies can lead to superior tropical cyclone forecasting.

BaCOUn: Bayesian Classifers with Out-of-Distribution Uncertainty

Traditional training of deep classifiers yields overconfident models that are not reliable under dataset shift. We propose a Bayesian framework to obtain reliable uncertainty estimates for deep classifiers. Our approach consists of a plug-in "generator" used to augment the data with an additional class of points that lie on the boundary of the training data, followed by Bayesian inference on top of features that are trained to distinguish these "out-of-distribution" points.