Clinical Risk Prediction Using Language Models: Benefits And Considerations

The utilization of Electronic Health Records (EHRs) for clinical risk prediction is on the rise. However, strict privacy regulations limit access to comprehensive health records, making it challenging to apply standard machine learning algorithms in practical real-world scenarios. Previous research has addressed this data limitation by incorporating medical ontologies and employing transfer learning methods. In this study, we investigate the potential of leveraging language models (LMs) as a means to incorporate supplementary domain knowledge for improving the performance of various EHR-based risk prediction tasks. Unlike applying LMs to unstructured EHR data such as clinical notes, this study focuses on using textual descriptions within structured EHR to make predictions exclusively based on that information. We extensively compare against previous approaches across various data types and sizes. We find that employing LMs to represent structured EHRs, such as diagnostic histories, leads to improved or at least comparable performance in diverse risk prediction tasks. Furthermore, LM-based approaches offer numerous advantages, including few-shot learning, the capability to handle previously unseen medical concepts, and adaptability to various medical vocabularies. Nevertheless, we underscore, through various experiments, the importance of being cautious when employing such models, as concerns regarding the reliability of LMs persist.