High-dimensional mixed-categorical Gaussian processes with application to multidisciplinary design optimization for a green aircraft

Multidisciplinary design optimization (MDO) methods aim at adapting numerical optimization techniques to the design of engineering systems involving multiple disciplines. In this context, a large number of mixed continuous, integer, and categorical variables might arise during the optimization process, and practical applications involve a significant number of design variables. Recently, there has been a growing interest in mixed-categorical metamodels based on Gaussian Process (GP) for Bayesian optimization. In particular, to handle mixed-categorical variables, several existing approaches employ different strategies to build the GP. These strategies either use continuous kernels, such as the continuous relaxation or the Gower distance-based kernels, or direct estimation of the correlation matrix, such as the exponential homoscedastic hypersphere (EHH) or the Homoscedastic Hypersphere (HH) kernel. Although the EHH and HH kernels are shown to be very efficient and lead to accurate GPs, they are based on a large number of hyperparameters. In this paper, we address this issue by constructing mixed-categorical GPs with fewer hyperparameters using Partial Least Squares (PLS) regression. Our goal is to generalize Kriging with PLS, commonly used for continuous inputs, to handle mixed-categorical inputs. The proposed method is implemented in the open-source software SMT and has been efficiently applied to structural and multidisciplinary applications. Our method is used to effectively demonstrate the structural behavior of a cantilever beam and facilitates MDO of a green aircraft, resulting in a 439-kilogram reduction in the amount of fuel consumed during a single aircraft mission.

SMT 2.0: A Surrogate Modeling Toolbox with a focus on Hierarchical and Mixed Variables Gaussian Processes

The Surrogate Modeling Toolbox (SMT) is an open-source Python package that offers a collection of surrogate modeling methods, sampling techniques, and a set of sample problems. This paper presents SMT 2.0, a major new release of SMT that introduces significant upgrades and new features to the toolbox. This release adds the capability to handle mixed-variable surrogate models and hierarchical variables. These types of variables are becoming increasingly important in several surrogate modeling applications. SMT 2.0 also improves SMT by extending sampling methods, adding new surrogate models, and computing variance and kernel derivatives for Kriging. This release also includes new functions to handle noisy and use multifidelity data. To the best of our knowledge, SMT 2.0 is the first open-source surrogate library to propose surrogate models for hierarchical and mixed inputs. This open-source software is distributed under the New BSD license.

Variance based sensitivity analysis for Monte Carlo and importance sampling reliability assessment with Gaussian processes

Running a reliability analysis on engineering problems involving complex numerical models can be computationally very expensive, requiring advanced simulation methods to reduce the overall numerical cost. Gaussian process based active learning methods for reliability analysis have emerged as a promising way for reducing this computational cost. The learning phase of these methods consists in building a Gaussian process surrogate model of the performance function and using the uncertainty structure of the Gaussian process to enrich iteratively this surrogate model. For that purpose a learning criterion has to be defined. Then, the estimation of the probability of failure is typically obtained by a classification of a population evaluated on the final surrogate model. Hence, the estimator of the probability of failure holds two different uncertainty sources related to the surrogate model approximation and to the sampling based integration technique. In this paper, we propose a methodology to quantify the sensitivity of the probability of failure estimator to both uncertainty sources. This analysis also enables to control the whole error associated to the failure probability estimate and thus provides an accuracy criterion on the estimation. Thus, an active learning approach integrating this analysis to reduce the main source of error and stopping when the global variability is sufficiently low is introduced. The approach is proposed for both a Monte Carlo based method as well as an importance sampling based method, seeking to improve the estimation of rare event probabilities. Performance of the proposed strategy is then assessed on several examples.

An efficient application of Bayesian optimization to an industrial MDO framework for aircraft design

The multi-level, multi-disciplinary and multi-fidelity optimization framework developed at Bombardier Aviation has shown great results to explore efficient and competitive aircraft configurations. This optimization framework has been developed within the Isight software, the latter offers a set of ready-to-use optimizers. Unfortunately, the computational effort required by the Isight optimizers can be prohibitive with respect to the requirements of an industrial context. In this paper, a constrained Bayesian optimization optimizer, namely the super efficient global optimization with mixture of experts, is used to reduce the optimization computational effort. The obtained results showed significant improvements compared to two of the popular Isight optimizers. The capabilities of the tested constrained Bayesian optimization solver are demonstrated on Bombardier research aircraft configuration study cases.

Upper Trust Bound Feasibility Criterion for Mixed Constrained Bayesian Optimization with Application to Aircraft Design

Bayesian optimization methods have been successfully applied to black box optimization problems that are expensive to evaluate. In this paper, we adapt the so-called super effcient global optimization algorithm to solve more accurately mixed constrained problems. The proposed approach handles constraints by means of upper trust bound, the latter encourages exploration of the feasible domain by combining the mean prediction and the associated uncertainty function given by the Gaussian processes. On top of that, a refinement procedure, based on a learning rate criterion, is introduced to enhance the exploitation and exploration trade-off. We show the good potential of the approach on a set of numerical experiments. Finally, we present an application to conceptual aircraft configuration upon which we show the superiority of the proposed approach compared to a set of the state-of-the-art black box optimization solvers. Keywords: Global Optimization, Mixed Constrained Optimization, Black box optimization, Bayesian Optimization, Gaussian Process.