EpiQAL: Benchmarking Large Language Models in Epidemiological Question Answering for Enhanced Alignment and Reasoning

Reliable epidemiological reasoning requires synthesizing study evidence to infer disease burden, transmission dynamics, and intervention effects at the population level. Existing medical question answering benchmarks primarily emphasize clinical knowledge or patient-level reasoning, yet few systematically evaluate evidence-grounded epidemiological inference. We present EpiQAL, the first diagnostic benchmark for epidemiological question answering across diverse diseases, comprising three subsets built from open-access literature. The subsets respectively evaluate text-grounded factual recall, multi-step inference linking document evidence with epidemiological principles, and conclusion reconstruction with the Discussion section withheld. Construction combines expert-designed taxonomy guidance, multi-model verification, and retrieval-based difficulty control. Experiments on ten open models reveal that current LLMs show limited performance on epidemiological reasoning, with multi-step inference posing the greatest challenge. Model rankings shift across subsets, and scale alone does not predict success. Chain-of-Thought prompting benefits multi-step inference but yields mixed results elsewhere. EpiQAL provides fine-grained diagnostic signals for evidence grounding, inferential reasoning, and conclusion reconstruction.

Can Large Language Models Adequately Perform Symbolic Reasoning Over Time Series?

Uncovering hidden symbolic laws from time series data, as an aspiration dating back to Kepler's discovery of planetary motion, remains a core challenge in scientific discovery and artificial intelligence. While Large Language Models show promise in structured reasoning tasks, their ability to infer interpretable, context-aligned symbolic structures from time series data is still underexplored. To systematically evaluate this capability, we introduce SymbolBench, a comprehensive benchmark designed to assess symbolic reasoning over real-world time series across three tasks: multivariate symbolic regression, Boolean network inference, and causal discovery. Unlike prior efforts limited to simple algebraic equations, SymbolBench spans a diverse set of symbolic forms with varying complexity. We further propose a unified framework that integrates LLMs with genetic programming to form a closed-loop symbolic reasoning system, where LLMs act both as predictors and evaluators. Our empirical results reveal key strengths and limitations of current models, highlighting the importance of combining domain knowledge, context alignment, and reasoning structure to improve LLMs in automated scientific discovery.

CAPE: Covariate-Adjusted Pre-Training for Epidemic Time Series Forecasting

Accurate forecasting of epidemic infection trajectories is crucial for safeguarding public health. However, limited data availability during emerging outbreaks and the complex interaction between environmental factors and disease dynamics present significant challenges for effective forecasting. In response, we introduce CAPE, a novel epidemic pre-training framework designed to harness extensive disease datasets from diverse regions and integrate environmental factors directly into the modeling process for more informed decision-making on downstream diseases. Based on a covariate adjustment framework, CAPE utilizes pre-training combined with hierarchical environment contrasting to identify universal patterns across diseases while estimating latent environmental influences. We have compiled a diverse collection of epidemic time series datasets and validated the effectiveness of CAPE under various evaluation scenarios, including full-shot, few-shot, zero-shot, cross-location, and cross-disease settings, where it outperforms the leading baseline by an average of 9.9% in full-shot and 14.3% in zero-shot settings. The code will be released upon acceptance.

EpiLearn: A Python Library for Machine Learning in Epidemic Modeling

EpiLearn is a Python toolkit developed for modeling, simulating, and analyzing epidemic data. Although there exist several packages that also deal with epidemic modeling, they are often restricted to mechanistic models or traditional statistical tools. As machine learning continues to shape the world, the gap between these packages and the latest models has become larger. To bridge the gap and inspire innovative research in epidemic modeling, EpiLearn not only provides support for evaluating epidemic models based on machine learning, but also incorporates comprehensive tools for analyzing epidemic data, such as simulation, visualization, transformations, etc. For the convenience of both epidemiologists and data scientists, we provide a unified framework for training and evaluation of epidemic models on two tasks: Forecasting and Source Detection. To facilitate the development of new models, EpiLearn follows a modular design, making it flexible and easy to use. In addition, an interactive web application is also developed to visualize the real-world or simulated epidemic data. Our package is available at https://github.com/Emory-Melody/EpiLearn.

A Review of Graph Neural Networks in Epidemic Modeling

Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, there has been a growing interest in studying epidemiological models. Traditional mechanistic models mathematically describe the transmission mechanisms of infectious diseases. However, they often fall short when confronted with the growing challenges of today. Consequently, Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have emerged as a progressively popular tool in epidemic research. In this paper, we endeavor to furnish a comprehensive review of GNNs in epidemic tasks and highlight potential future directions. To accomplish this objective, we introduce hierarchical taxonomies for both epidemic tasks and methodologies, offering a trajectory of development within this domain. For epidemic tasks, we establish a taxonomy akin to those typically employed within the epidemic domain. For methodology, we categorize existing work into \textit{Neural Models} and \textit{Hybrid Models}. Following this, we perform an exhaustive and systematic examination of the methodologies, encompassing both the tasks and their technical details. Furthermore, we discuss the limitations of existing methods from diverse perspectives and systematically propose future research directions. This survey aims to bridge literature gaps and promote the progression of this promising field. We hope that it will facilitate synergies between the communities of GNNs and epidemiology, and contribute to their collective progress.