Forecasting Smog Clouds With Deep Learning

In this proof-of-concept study, we conduct multivariate timeseries forecasting for the concentrations of nitrogen dioxide (NO2), ozone (O3), and (fine) particulate matter (PM10 & PM2.5) with meteorological covariates between two locations using various deep learning models, with a focus on long short-term memory (LSTM) and gated recurrent unit (GRU) architectures. In particular, we propose an integrated, hierarchical model architecture inspired by air pollution dynamics and atmospheric science that employs multi-task learning and is benchmarked by unidirectional and fully-connected models. Results demonstrate that, above all, the hierarchical GRU proves itself as a competitive and efficient method for forecasting the concentration of smog-related pollutants.

How disentangled are your classification uncertainties?

Uncertainty Quantification in Machine Learning has progressed to predicting the source of uncertainty in a prediction: Uncertainty from stochasticity in the data (aleatoric), or uncertainty from limitations of the model (epistemic). Generally, each uncertainty is evaluated in isolation, but this obscures the fact that they are often not truly disentangled. This work proposes a set of experiments to evaluate disentanglement of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty, and uses these methods to compare two competing formulations for disentanglement (the Information Theoretic approach, and the Gaussian Logits approach). The results suggest that the Information Theoretic approach gives better disentanglement, but that either predicted source of uncertainty is still largely contaminated by the other for both methods. We conclude that with the current methods for disentangling, aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty are not reliably separated, and we provide a clear set of experimental criteria that good uncertainty disentanglement should follow.

The Dilemma of Uncertainty Estimation for General Purpose AI in the EU AI Act

The AI act is the European Union-wide regulation of AI systems. It includes specific provisions for general-purpose AI models which however need to be further interpreted in terms of technical standards and state-of-art studies to ensure practical compliance solutions. This paper examines the AI act requirements for providers and deployers of general-purpose AI and further proposes uncertainty estimation as a suitable measure for legal compliance and quality assurance in training of such models. We argue that uncertainty estimation should be a required component for deploying models in the real world, and under the EU AI Act, it could fulfill several requirements for transparency, accuracy, and trustworthiness. However, generally using uncertainty estimation methods increases the amount of computation, producing a dilemma, as computation might go over the threshold ($10^{25}$ FLOPS) to classify the model as a systemic risk system which bears more regulatory burden.

Terrain Classification Enhanced with Uncertainty for Space Exploration Robots from Proprioceptive Data

Terrain Classification is an essential task in space exploration, where unpredictable environments are difficult to observe using only exteroceptive sensors such as vision. Implementing Neural Network classifiers can have high performance but can be deemed untrustworthy as they lack transparency, which makes them unreliable for taking high-stakes decisions during mission planning. We address this by proposing Neural Networks with Uncertainty Quantification in Terrain Classification. We enable our Neural Networks with Monte Carlo Dropout, DropConnect, and Flipout in time series-capable architectures using only proprioceptive data as input. We use Bayesian Optimization with Hyperband for efficient hyperparameter optimization to find optimal models for trustworthy terrain classification.

Unified Uncertainties: Combining Input, Data and Model Uncertainty into a Single Formulation

Modelling uncertainty in Machine Learning models is essential for achieving safe and reliable predictions. Most research on uncertainty focuses on output uncertainty (predictions), but minimal attention is paid to uncertainty at inputs. We propose a method for propagating uncertainty in the inputs through a Neural Network that is simultaneously able to estimate input, data, and model uncertainty. Our results show that this propagation of input uncertainty results in a more stable decision boundary even under large amounts of input noise than comparatively simple Monte Carlo sampling. Additionally, we discuss and demonstrate that input uncertainty, when propagated through the model, results in model uncertainty at the outputs. The explicit incorporation of input uncertainty may be beneficial in situations where the amount of input uncertainty is known, though good datasets for this are still needed.

Overconfidence is Key: Verbalized Uncertainty Evaluation in Large Language and Vision-Language Models

Language and Vision-Language Models (LLMs/VLMs) have revolutionized the field of AI by their ability to generate human-like text and understand images, but ensuring their reliability is crucial. This paper aims to evaluate the ability of LLMs (GPT4, GPT-3.5, LLaMA2, and PaLM 2) and VLMs (GPT4V and Gemini Pro Vision) to estimate their verbalized uncertainty via prompting. We propose the new Japanese Uncertain Scenes (JUS) dataset, aimed at testing VLM capabilities via difficult queries and object counting, and the Net Calibration Error (NCE) to measure direction of miscalibration. Results show that both LLMs and VLMs have a high calibration error and are overconfident most of the time, indicating a poor capability for uncertainty estimation. Additionally we develop prompts for regression tasks, and we show that VLMs have poor calibration when producing mean/standard deviation and 95% confidence intervals.

A Neuromorphic Approach to Obstacle Avoidance in Robot Manipulation

Neuromorphic computing mimics computational principles of the brain in $\textit{silico}$ and motivates research into event-based vision and spiking neural networks (SNNs). Event cameras (ECs) exclusively capture local intensity changes and offer superior power consumption, response latencies, and dynamic ranges. SNNs replicate biological neuronal dynamics and have demonstrated potential as alternatives to conventional artificial neural networks (ANNs), such as in reducing energy expenditure and inference time in visual classification. Nevertheless, these novel paradigms remain scarcely explored outside the domain of aerial robots. To investigate the utility of brain-inspired sensing and data processing, we developed a neuromorphic approach to obstacle avoidance on a camera-equipped manipulator. Our approach adapts high-level trajectory plans with reactive maneuvers by processing emulated event data in a convolutional SNN, decoding neural activations into avoidance motions, and adjusting plans using a dynamic motion primitive. We conducted experiments with a Kinova Gen3 arm performing simple reaching tasks that involve obstacles in sets of distinct task scenarios and in comparison to a non-adaptive baseline. Our neuromorphic approach facilitated reliable avoidance of imminent collisions in simulated and real-world experiments, where the baseline consistently failed. Trajectory adaptations had low impacts on safety and predictability criteria. Among the notable SNN properties were the correlation of computations with the magnitude of perceived motions and a robustness to different event emulation methods. Tests with a DAVIS346 EC showed similar performance, validating our experimental event emulation. Our results motivate incorporating SNN learning, utilizing neuromorphic processors, and further exploring the potential of neuromorphic methods.

Sanity Checks for Explanation Uncertainty

Explanations for machine learning models can be hard to interpret or be wrong. Combining an explanation method with an uncertainty estimation method produces explanation uncertainty. Evaluating explanation uncertainty is difficult. In this paper we propose sanity checks for uncertainty explanation methods, where a weight and data randomization tests are defined for explanations with uncertainty, allowing for quick tests to combinations of uncertainty and explanation methods. We experimentally show the validity and effectiveness of these tests on the CIFAR10 and California Housing datasets, noting that Ensembles seem to consistently pass both tests with Guided Backpropagation, Integrated Gradients, and LIME explanations.

Uncertainty Quantification for Gradient-based Explanations in Neural Networks

Explanation methods help understand the reasons for a model's prediction. These methods are increasingly involved in model debugging, performance optimization, and gaining insights into the workings of a model. With such critical applications of these methods, it is imperative to measure the uncertainty associated with the explanations generated by these methods. In this paper, we propose a pipeline to ascertain the explanation uncertainty of neural networks by combining uncertainty estimation methods and explanation methods. We use this pipeline to produce explanation distributions for the CIFAR-10, FER+, and California Housing datasets. By computing the coefficient of variation of these distributions, we evaluate the confidence in the explanation and determine that the explanations generated using Guided Backpropagation have low uncertainty associated with them. Additionally, we compute modified pixel insertion/deletion metrics to evaluate the quality of the generated explanations.

Transferring BCI models from calibration to control: Observing shifts in EEG features

Public Motor Imagery-based brain-computer interface (BCI) datasets are being used to develop increasingly good classifiers. However, they usually follow discrete paradigms where participants perform Motor Imagery at regularly timed intervals. It is often unclear what changes may happen in the EEG patterns when users attempt to perform a control task with such a BCI. This may lead to generalisation errors. We demonstrate a new paradigm containing a standard calibration session and a novel BCI control session based on EMG. This allows us to observe similarities in sensorimotor rhythms, and observe the additional preparation effects introduced by the control paradigm. In the Movement Related Cortical Potentials we found large differences between the calibration and control sessions. We demonstrate a CSP-based Machine Learning model trained on the calibration data that can make surprisingly good predictions on the BCI-controlled driving data.