Anytime Sequential Halving in Monte-Carlo Tree Search

Monte-Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) typically uses multi-armed bandit (MAB) strategies designed to minimize cumulative regret, such as UCB1, as its selection strategy. However, in the root node of the search tree, it is more sensible to minimize simple regret. Previous work has proposed using Sequential Halving as selection strategy in the root node, as, in theory, it performs better with respect to simple regret. However, Sequential Halving requires a budget of iterations to be predetermined, which is often impractical. This paper proposes an anytime version of the algorithm, which can be halted at any arbitrary time and still return a satisfactory result, while being designed such that it approximates the behavior of Sequential Halving. Empirical results in synthetic MAB problems and ten different board games demonstrate that the algorithm's performance is competitive with Sequential Halving and UCB1 (and their analogues in MCTS).

Enhancements for Real-Time Monte-Carlo Tree Search in General Video Game Playing

General Video Game Playing (GVGP) is a field of Artificial Intelligence where agents play a variety of real-time video games that are unknown in advance. This limits the use of domain-specific heuristics. Monte-Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) is a search technique for game playing that does not rely on domain-specific knowledge. This paper discusses eight enhancements for MCTS in GVGP; Progressive History, N-Gram Selection Technique, Tree Reuse, Breadth-First Tree Initialization, Loss Avoidance, Novelty-Based Pruning, Knowledge-Based Evaluations, and Deterministic Game Detection. Some of these are known from existing literature, and are either extended or introduced in the context of GVGP, and some are novel enhancements for MCTS. Most enhancements are shown to provide statistically significant increases in win percentages when applied individually. When combined, they increase the average win percentage over sixty different games from 31.0% to 48.4% in comparison to a vanilla MCTS implementation, approaching a level that is competitive with the best agents of the GVG-AI competition in 2015.

Towards a Characterisation of Monte-Carlo Tree Search Performance in Different Games

Many enhancements to Monte-Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) have been proposed over almost two decades of general game playing and other artificial intelligence research. However, our ability to characterise and understand which variants work well or poorly in which games is still lacking. This paper describes work on an initial dataset that we have built to make progress towards such an understanding: 268,386 plays among 61 different agents across 1494 distinct games. We describe a preliminary analysis and work on training predictive models on this dataset, as well as lessons learned and future plans for a new and improved version of the dataset.

Proof Number Based Monte-Carlo Tree Search

This paper proposes a new game search algorithm, PN-MCTS, that combines Monte-Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) and Proof-Number Search (PNS). These two algorithms have been successfully applied for decision making in a range of domains. We define three areas where the additional knowledge provided by the proof and disproof numbers gathered in MCTS trees might be used: final move selection, solving subtrees, and the UCT formula. We test all possible combinations on different time settings, playing against vanilla UCT MCTS on several games: Lines of Action ($7$$\times$$7$ and $8$$\times$$8$), MiniShogi, Knightthrough, Awari, and Gomoku. Furthermore, we extend this new algorithm to properly address games with draws, like Awari, by adding an additional layer of PNS on top of the MCTS tree. The experiments show that PN-MCTS confidently outperforms MCTS in 5 out of 6 game domains (all except Gomoku), achieving win rates up to 96.2% for Lines of Action.

Monte-Carlo Tree-Search for Leveraging Performance of Blackbox Job-Shop Scheduling Heuristics

In manufacturing, the production is often done on out-of-the-shelf manufacturing lines, whose underlying scheduling heuristics are not known due to the intellectual property. We consider such a setting with a black-box job-shop system and an unknown scheduling heuristic that, for a given permutation of jobs, schedules the jobs for the black-box job-shop with the goal of minimizing the makespan. Here, the jobs need to enter the job-shop in the given order of the permutation, but may take different paths within the job shop, which depends on the black-box heuristic. The performance of the black-box heuristic depends on the order of the jobs, and the natural problem for the manufacturer is to find an optimum ordering of the jobs. Facing a real-world scenario as described above, we engineer the Monte-Carlo tree-search for finding a close-to-optimum ordering of jobs. To cope with a large solutions-space in planning scenarios, a hierarchical Monte-Carlo tree search (H-MCTS) is proposed based on abstraction of jobs. On synthetic and real-life problems, H-MCTS with integrated abstraction significantly outperforms pure heuristic-based techniques as well as other Monte-Carlo search variants. We furthermore show that, by modifying the evaluation metric in H-MCTS, it is possible to achieve other optimization objectives than what the scheduling heuristics are designed for -- e.g., minimizing the total completion time instead of the makespan. Our experimental observations have been also validated in real-life cases, and our H-MCTS approach has been implemented in a production plant's controller.

Combining Monte-Carlo Tree Search with Proof-Number Search

Proof-Number Search (PNS) and Monte-Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) have been successfully applied for decision making in a range of games. This paper proposes a new approach called PN-MCTS that combines these two tree-search methods by incorporating the concept of proof and disproof numbers into the UCT formula of MCTS. Experimental results demonstrate that PN-MCTS outperforms basic MCTS in several games including Lines of Action, MiniShogi, Knightthrough, and Awari, achieving win rates up to 94.0%.

Split Moves for Monte-Carlo Tree Search

In many games, moves consist of several decisions made by the player. These decisions can be viewed as separate moves, which is already a common practice in multi-action games for efficiency reasons. Such division of a player move into a sequence of simpler / lower level moves is called \emph{splitting}. So far, split moves have been applied only in forementioned straightforward cases, and furthermore, there was almost no study revealing its impact on agents' playing strength. Taking the knowledge-free perspective, we aim to answer how to effectively use split moves within Monte-Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) and what is the practical impact of split design on agents' strength. This paper proposes a generalization of MCTS that works with arbitrarily split moves. We design several variations of the algorithm and try to measure the impact of split moves separately on efficiency, quality of MCTS, simulations, and action-based heuristics. The tests are carried out on a set of board games and performed using the Regular Boardgames General Game Playing formalism, where split strategies of different granularity can be automatically derived based on an abstract description of the game. The results give an overview of the behavior of agents using split design in different ways. We conclude that split design can be greatly beneficial for single- as well as multi-action games.

Service Selection using Predictive Models and Monte-Carlo Tree Search

This article proposes a method for automated service selection to improve treatment efficacy and reduce re-hospitalization costs. A predictive model is developed using the National Home and Hospice Care Survey (NHHCS) dataset to quantify the effect of care services on the risk of re-hospitalization. By taking the patient's characteristics and other selected services into account, the model is able to indicate the overall effectiveness of a combination of services for a specific NHHCS patient. The developed model is incorporated in Monte-Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) to determine optimal combinations of services that minimize the risk of emergency re-hospitalization. MCTS serves as a risk minimization algorithm in this case, using the predictive model for guidance during the search. Using this method on the NHHCS dataset, a significant reduction in risk of re-hospitalization is observed compared to the original selections made by clinicians. An 11.89 percentage points risk reduction is achieved on average. Higher reductions of roughly 40 percentage points on average are observed for NHHCS patients in the highest risk categories. These results seem to indicate that there is enormous potential for improving service selection in the near future.

Foundations of Digital Archæoludology

Digital Archaeoludology (DAL) is a new field of study involving the analysis and reconstruction of ancient games from incomplete descriptions and archaeological evidence using modern computational techniques. The aim is to provide digital tools and methods to help game historians and other researchers better understand traditional games, their development throughout recorded human history, and their relationship to the development of human culture and mathematical knowledge. This work is being explored in the ERC-funded Digital Ludeme Project. The aim of this inaugural international research meeting on DAL is to gather together leading experts in relevant disciplines - computer science, artificial intelligence, machine learning, computational phylogenetics, mathematics, history, archaeology, anthropology, etc. - to discuss the key themes and establish the foundations for this new field of research, so that it may continue beyond the lifetime of its initiating project.

Ludii - The Ludemic General Game System

While current General Game Playing (GGP) systems facilitate useful research in Artificial Intelligence (AI) for game-playing, they are often somewhat specialized and computationally inefficient. In this paper, we describe an initial version of a "ludemic" general game system called Ludii, which has the potential to provide an efficient tool for AI researchers as well game designers, historians, educators and practitioners in related fields. Ludii defines games as structures of ludemes, i.e. high-level, easily understandable game concepts. We establish the foundations of Ludii by outlining its main benefits: generality, extensibility, understandability and efficiency. Experimentally, Ludii outperforms one of the most efficient Game Description Language (GDL) reasoners, based on a propositional network, for all available games in the Tiltyard GGP repository.