An Empirical Game-Theoretic Analysis of Autonomous Cyber-Defence Agents

The recent rise in increasingly sophisticated cyber-attacks raises the need for robust and resilient autonomous cyber-defence (ACD) agents. Given the variety of cyber-attack tactics, techniques and procedures (TTPs) employed, learning approaches that can return generalisable policies are desirable. Meanwhile, the assurance of ACD agents remains an open challenge. We address both challenges via an empirical game-theoretic analysis of deep reinforcement learning (DRL) approaches for ACD using the principled double oracle (DO) algorithm. This algorithm relies on adversaries iteratively learning (approximate) best responses against each others' policies; a computationally expensive endeavour for autonomous cyber operations agents. In this work we introduce and evaluate a theoretically-sound, potential-based reward shaping approach to expedite this process. In addition, given the increasing number of open-source ACD-DRL approaches, we extend the DO formulation to allow for multiple response oracles (MRO), providing a framework for a holistic evaluation of ACD approaches.

Machine Theory of Mind for Autonomous Cyber-Defence

Intelligent autonomous agents hold much potential for the domain of cyber-security. However, due to many state-of-the-art approaches relying on uninterpretable black-box models, there is growing demand for methods that offer stakeholders clear and actionable insights into their latent beliefs and motivations. To address this, we evaluate Theory of Mind (ToM) approaches for Autonomous Cyber Operations. Upon learning a robust prior, ToM models can predict an agent's goals, behaviours, and contextual beliefs given only a handful of past behaviour observations. In this paper, we introduce a novel Graph Neural Network (GNN)-based ToM architecture tailored for cyber-defence, Graph-In, Graph-Out (GIGO)-ToM, which can accurately predict both the targets and attack trajectories of adversarial cyber agents over arbitrary computer network topologies. To evaluate the latter, we propose a novel extension of the Wasserstein distance for measuring the similarity of graph-based probability distributions. Whereas the standard Wasserstein distance lacks a fixed reference scale, we introduce a graph-theoretic normalization factor that enables a standardized comparison between networks of different sizes. We furnish this metric, which we term the Network Transport Distance (NTD), with a weighting function that emphasizes predictions according to custom node features, allowing network operators to explore arbitrary strategic considerations. Benchmarked against a Graph-In, Dense-Out (GIDO)-ToM architecture in an abstract cyber-defence environment, our empirical evaluations show that GIGO-ToM can accurately predict the goals and behaviours of various unseen cyber-attacking agents across a range of network topologies, as well as learn embeddings that can effectively characterize their policies.