SurvSurf: a partially monotonic neural network for first-hitting time prediction of intermittently observed discrete and continuous sequential events

We propose a neural-network based survival model (SurvSurf) specifically designed for direct and simultaneous probabilistic prediction of the first hitting time of sequential events from baseline. Unlike existing models, SurvSurf is theoretically guaranteed to never violate the monotonic relationship between the cumulative incidence functions of sequential events, while allowing nonlinear influence from predictors. It also incorporates implicit truths for unobserved intermediate events in model fitting, and supports both discrete and continuous time and events. We also identified a variant of the Integrated Brier Score (IBS) that showed robust correlation with the mean squared error (MSE) between the true and predicted probabilities by accounting for implied truths about the missing intermediate events. We demonstrated the superiority of SurvSurf compared to modern and traditional predictive survival models in two simulated datasets and two real-world datasets, using MSE, the more robust IBS and by measuring the extent of monotonicity violation.

Unsupervised Segmentation of Colonoscopy Images

Colonoscopy plays a crucial role in the diagnosis and prognosis of various gastrointestinal diseases. Due to the challenges of collecting large-scale high-quality ground truth annotations for colonoscopy images, and more generally medical images, we explore using self-supervised features from vision transformers in three challenging tasks for colonoscopy images. Our results indicate that image-level features learned from DINO models achieve image classification performance comparable to fully supervised models, and patch-level features contain rich semantic information for object detection. Furthermore, we demonstrate that self-supervised features combined with unsupervised segmentation can be used to discover multiple clinically relevant structures in a fully unsupervised manner, demonstrating the tremendous potential of applying these methods in medical image analysis.