Since Faithfulness Fails: The Performance Limits of Neural Causal Discovery

Neural causal discovery methods have recently improved in terms of scalability and computational efficiency. However, our systematic evaluation highlights significant room for improvement in their accuracy when uncovering causal structures. We identify a fundamental limitation: neural networks cannot reliably distinguish between existing and non-existing causal relationships in the finite sample regime. Our experiments reveal that neural networks, as used in contemporary causal discovery approaches, lack the precision needed to recover ground-truth graphs, even for small graphs and relatively large sample sizes. Furthermore, we identify the faithfulness property as a critical bottleneck: (i) it is likely to be violated across any reasonable dataset size range, and (ii) its violation directly undermines the performance of neural discovery methods. These findings lead us to conclude that progress within the current paradigm is fundamentally constrained, necessitating a paradigm shift in this domain.

Deep Dive into the Language of International Relations: NLP-based Analysis of UNESCO's Summary Records

Cultural heritage is an arena of international relations that interests all states worldwide. The inscription process on the UNESCO World Heritage List and the UNESCO Representative List of the Intangible Cultural Heritage of Humanity often leads to tensions and conflicts among states. This research addresses these challenges by developing automatic tools that provide valuable insights into the decision-making processes regarding inscriptions to the two lists mentioned above. We propose innovative topic modelling and tension detection methods based on UNESCO's summary records. Our analysis achieved a commendable accuracy rate of 72% in identifying tensions. Furthermore, we have developed an application tailored for diplomats, lawyers, political scientists, and international relations researchers that facilitates the efficient search of paragraphs from selected documents and statements from specific speakers about chosen topics. This application is a valuable resource for enhancing the understanding of complex decision-making dynamics within international heritage inscription procedures.