Reconciling Kaplan and Chinchilla Scaling Laws

Kaplan et al. [2020] (`Kaplan') and Hoffmann et al. [2022] (`Chinchilla') studied the scaling behavior of transformers trained on next-token language prediction. These studies produced different estimates for how the number of parameters ($N$) and training tokens ($D$) should be set to achieve the lowest possible loss for a given compute budget ($C$). Kaplan: $N_\text{optimal} \propto C^{0.73}$, Chinchilla: $N_\text{optimal} \propto C^{0.50}$. This note finds that much of this discrepancy can be attributed to Kaplan counting non-embedding rather than total parameters, combined with their analysis being performed at small scale. Simulating the Chinchilla study under these conditions produces biased scaling coefficients close to Kaplan's. Hence, this note reaffirms Chinchilla's scaling coefficients, by explaining the cause of Kaplan's original overestimation.

A Resource Model For Neural Scaling Law

Neural scaling laws characterize how model performance improves as the model size scales up. Inspired by empirical observations, we introduce a resource model of neural scaling. A task is usually composite hence can be decomposed into many subtasks, which compete for resources (measured by the number of neurons allocated to subtasks). On toy problems, we empirically find that: (1) The loss of a subtask is inversely proportional to its allocated neurons. (2) When multiple subtasks are present in a composite task, the resources acquired by each subtask uniformly grow as models get larger, keeping the ratios of acquired resources constants. We hypothesize these findings to be generally true and build a model to predict neural scaling laws for general composite tasks, which successfully replicates the neural scaling law of Chinchilla models reported in arXiv:2203.15556. We believe that the notion of resource used in this paper will be a useful tool for characterizing and diagnosing neural networks.