Leveraging Time-Series Foundation Models in Smart Agriculture for Soil Moisture Forecasting

The recent surge in foundation models for natural language processing and computer vision has fueled innovation across various domains. Inspired by this progress, we explore the potential of foundation models for time-series forecasting in smart agriculture, a field often plagued by limited data availability. Specifically, this work presents a novel application of $\texttt{TimeGPT}$, a state-of-the-art (SOTA) time-series foundation model, to predict soil water potential ($\psi_\mathrm{soil}$), a key indicator of field water status that is typically used for irrigation advice. Traditionally, this task relies on a wide array of input variables. We explore $\psi_\mathrm{soil}$'s ability to forecast $\psi_\mathrm{soil}$ in: ($i$) a zero-shot setting, ($ii$) a fine-tuned setting relying solely on historic $\psi_\mathrm{soil}$ measurements, and ($iii$) a fine-tuned setting where we also add exogenous variables to the model. We compare $\texttt{TimeGPT}$'s performance to established SOTA baseline models for forecasting $\psi_\mathrm{soil}$. Our results demonstrate that $\texttt{TimeGPT}$ achieves competitive forecasting accuracy using only historical $\psi_\mathrm{soil}$ data, highlighting its remarkable potential for agricultural applications. This research paves the way for foundation time-series models for sustainable development in agriculture by enabling forecasting tasks that were traditionally reliant on extensive data collection and domain expertise.

From Internet of Things Data to Business Processes: Challenges and a Framework

The IoT and Business Process Management (BPM) communities co-exist in many shared application domains, such as manufacturing and healthcare. The IoT community has a strong focus on hardware, connectivity and data; the BPM community focuses mainly on finding, controlling, and enhancing the structured interactions among the IoT devices in processes. While the field of Process Mining deals with the extraction of process models and process analytics from process event logs, the data produced by IoT sensors often is at a lower granularity than these process-level events. The fundamental questions about extracting and abstracting process-related data from streams of IoT sensor values are: (1) Which sensor values can be clustered together as part of process events?, (2) Which sensor values signify the start and end of such events?, (3) Which sensor values are related but not essential? This work proposes a framework to semi-automatically perform a set of structured steps to convert low-level IoT sensor data into higher-level process events that are suitable for process mining. The framework is meant to provide a generic sequence of abstract steps to guide the event extraction, abstraction, and correlation, with variation points for plugging in specific analysis techniques and algorithms for each step. To assess the completeness of the framework, we present a set of challenges, how they can be tackled through the framework, and an example on how to instantiate the framework in a real-world demonstration from the field of smart manufacturing. Based on this framework, future research can be conducted in a structured manner through refining and improving individual steps.

End-To-End Self-tuning Self-supervised Time Series Anomaly Detection

Time series anomaly detection (TSAD) finds many applications such as monitoring environmental sensors, industry KPIs, patient biomarkers, etc. A two-fold challenge for TSAD is a versatile and unsupervised model that can detect various different types of time series anomalies (spikes, discontinuities, trend shifts, etc.) without any labeled data. Modern neural networks have outstanding ability in modeling complex time series. Self-supervised models in particular tackle unsupervised TSAD by transforming the input via various augmentations to create pseudo anomalies for training. However, their performance is sensitive to the choice of augmentation, which is hard to choose in practice, while there exists no effort in the literature on data augmentation tuning for TSAD without labels. Our work aims to fill this gap. We introduce TSAP for TSA "on autoPilot", which can (self-)tune augmentation hyperparameters end-to-end. It stands on two key components: a differentiable augmentation architecture and an unsupervised validation loss to effectively assess the alignment between augmentation type and anomaly type. Case studies show TSAP's ability to effectively select the (discrete) augmentation type and associated (continuous) hyperparameters. In turn, it outperforms established baselines, including SOTA self-supervised models, on diverse TSAD tasks exhibiting different anomaly types.

Self-Supervised Anomaly Detection of Rogue Soil Moisture Sensors

IoT data is a central element in the successful digital transformation of agriculture. However, IoT data comes with its own set of challenges. E.g., the risk of data contamination due to rogue sensors. A sensor is considered rogue when it provides incorrect measurements over time. To ensure correct analytical results, an essential preprocessing step when working with IoT data is the detection of such rogue sensors. Existing methods assume that well-behaving sensors are known or that a large majority of the sensors is well-behaving. However, real-world data is often completely unlabeled and voluminous, calling for self-supervised methods that can detect rogue sensors without prior information. We present a self-supervised anomalous sensor detector based on a neural network with a contrastive loss, followed by DBSCAN. A core contribution of our paper is the use of Dynamic Time Warping in the negative sampling for the triplet loss. This novelty makes the use of triplet networks feasible for anomalous sensor detection. Our method shows promising results on a challenging dataset of soil moisture sensors deployed in multiple pear orchards.