Fact Recall, Heuristics or Pure Guesswork? Precise Interpretations of Language Models for Fact Completion

Previous interpretations of language models (LMs) miss important distinctions in how these models process factual information. For example, given the query "Astrid Lindgren was born in" with the corresponding completion "Sweden", no difference is made between whether the prediction was based on having the exact knowledge of the birthplace of the Swedish author or assuming that a person with a Swedish-sounding name was born in Sweden. In this paper, we investigate four different prediction scenarios for which the LM can be expected to show distinct behaviors. These scenarios correspond to different levels of model reliability and types of information being processed - some being less desirable for factual predictions. To facilitate precise interpretations of LMs for fact completion, we propose a model-specific recipe called PrISM for constructing datasets with examples of each scenario based on a set of diagnostic criteria. We apply a popular interpretability method, causal tracing (CT), to the four prediction scenarios and find that while CT produces different results for each scenario, aggregations over a set of mixed examples may only represent the results from the scenario with the strongest measured signal. In summary, we contribute tools for a more granular study of fact completion in language models and analyses that provide a more nuanced understanding of how LMs process fact-related queries.

Setting the AI Agenda -- Evidence from Sweden in the ChatGPT Era

This paper examines the development of the Artificial Intelligence (AI) meta-debate in Sweden before and after the release of ChatGPT. From the perspective of agenda-setting theory, we propose that it is an elite outside of party politics that is leading the debate -- i.e. that the politicians are relatively silent when it comes to this rapid development. We also suggest that the debate has become more substantive and risk-oriented in recent years. To investigate this claim, we draw on an original dataset of elite-level documents from the early 2010s to the present, using op-eds published in a number of leading Swedish newspapers. By conducting a qualitative content analysis of these materials, our preliminary findings lend support to the expectation that an academic, rather than a political elite is steering the debate.

The Effect of Scaling, Retrieval Augmentation and Form on the Factual Consistency of Language Models

Large Language Models (LLMs) make natural interfaces to factual knowledge, but their usefulness is limited by their tendency to deliver inconsistent answers to semantically equivalent questions. For example, a model might predict both "Anne Redpath passed away in Edinburgh." and "Anne Redpath's life ended in London." In this work, we identify potential causes of inconsistency and evaluate the effectiveness of two mitigation strategies: up-scaling and augmenting the LM with a retrieval corpus. Our results on the LLaMA and Atlas models show that both strategies reduce inconsistency while retrieval augmentation is considerably more efficient. We further consider and disentangle the consistency contributions of different components of Atlas. For all LMs evaluated we find that syntactical form and other evaluation task artifacts impact consistency. Taken together, our results provide a better understanding of the factors affecting the factual consistency of language models.