Time Series Viewmakers for Robust Disruption Prediction

Machine Learning guided data augmentation may support the development of technologies in the physical sciences, such as nuclear fusion tokamaks. Here we endeavor to study the problem of detecting disruptions i.e. plasma instabilities that can cause significant damages, impairing the reliability and efficiency required for their real world viability. Machine learning (ML) prediction models have shown promise in detecting disruptions for specific tokamaks, but they often struggle in generalizing to the diverse characteristics and dynamics of different machines. This limits the effectiveness of ML models across different tokamak designs and operating conditions, which is a critical barrier to scaling fusion technology. Given the success of data augmentation in improving model robustness and generalizability in other fields, this study explores the use of a novel time series viewmaker network to generate diverse augmentations or "views" of training data. Our results show that incorporating views during training improves AUC and F2 scores on DisruptionBench tasks compared to standard or no augmentations. This approach represents a promising step towards developing more broadly applicable ML models for disruption avoidance, which is essential for advancing fusion technology and, ultimately, addressing climate change through reliable and sustainable energy production.

Active Disruption Avoidance and Trajectory Design for Tokamak Ramp-downs with Neural Differential Equations and Reinforcement Learning

The tokamak offers a promising path to fusion energy, but plasma disruptions pose a major economic risk, motivating considerable advances in disruption avoidance. This work develops a reinforcement learning approach to this problem by training a policy to safely ramp-down the plasma current while avoiding limits on a number of quantities correlated with disruptions. The policy training environment is a hybrid physics and machine learning model trained on simulations of the SPARC primary reference discharge (PRD) ramp-down, an upcoming burning plasma scenario which we use as a testbed. To address physics uncertainty and model inaccuracies, the simulation environment is massively parallelized on GPU with randomized physics parameters during policy training. The trained policy is then successfully transferred to a higher fidelity simulator where it successfully ramps down the plasma while avoiding user-specified disruptive limits. We also address the crucial issue of safety criticality by demonstrating that a constraint-conditioned policy can be used as a trajectory design assistant to design a library of feed-forward trajectories to handle different physics conditions and user settings. As a library of trajectories is more interpretable and verifiable offline, we argue such an approach is a promising path for leveraging the capabilities of reinforcement learning in the safety-critical context of burning plasma tokamaks. Finally, we demonstrate how the training environment can be a useful platform for other feed-forward optimization approaches by using an evolutionary algorithm to perform optimization of feed-forward trajectories that are robust to physics uncertainty

Hybridizing Physics and Neural ODEs for Predicting Plasma Inductance Dynamics in Tokamak Fusion Reactors

While fusion reactors known as tokamaks hold promise as a firm energy source, advances in plasma control, and handling of events where control of plasmas is lost, are needed for them to be economical. A significant bottleneck towards applying more advanced control algorithms is the need for better plasma simulation, where both physics-based and data-driven approaches currently fall short. The former is bottle-necked by both computational cost and the difficulty of modelling plasmas, and the latter is bottle-necked by the relative paucity of data. To address this issue, this work applies the neural ordinary differential equations (ODE) framework to the problem of predicting a subset of plasma dynamics, namely the coupled plasma current and internal inductance dynamics. As the neural ODE framework allows for the natural inclusion of physics-based inductive biases, we train both physics-based and neural network models on data from the Alcator C-Mod fusion reactor and find that a model that combines physics-based equations with a neural ODE performs better than both existing physics-motivated ODEs and a pure neural ODE model.