Counterfactual Explanation for Auto-Encoder Based Time-Series Anomaly Detection

The complexity of modern electro-mechanical systems require the development of sophisticated diagnostic methods like anomaly detection capable of detecting deviations. Conventional anomaly detection approaches like signal processing and statistical modelling often struggle to effectively handle the intricacies of complex systems, particularly when dealing with multi-variate signals. In contrast, neural network-based anomaly detection methods, especially Auto-Encoders, have emerged as a compelling alternative, demonstrating remarkable performance. However, Auto-Encoders exhibit inherent opaqueness in their decision-making processes, hindering their practical implementation at scale. Addressing this opacity is essential for enhancing the interpretability and trustworthiness of anomaly detection models. In this work, we address this challenge by employing a feature selector to select features and counterfactual explanations to give a context to the model output. We tested this approach on the SKAB benchmark dataset and an industrial time-series dataset. The gradient based counterfactual explanation approach was evaluated via validity, sparsity and distance measures. Our experimental findings illustrate that our proposed counterfactual approach can offer meaningful and valuable insights into the model decision-making process, by explaining fewer signals compared to conventional approaches. These insights enhance the trustworthiness and interpretability of anomaly detection models.

DiffPAD: Denoising Diffusion-based Adversarial Patch Decontamination

In the ever-evolving adversarial machine learning landscape, developing effective defenses against patch attacks has become a critical challenge, necessitating reliable solutions to safeguard real-world AI systems. Although diffusion models have shown remarkable capacity in image synthesis and have been recently utilized to counter $\ell_p$-norm bounded attacks, their potential in mitigating localized patch attacks remains largely underexplored. In this work, we propose DiffPAD, a novel framework that harnesses the power of diffusion models for adversarial patch decontamination. DiffPAD first performs super-resolution restoration on downsampled input images, then adopts binarization, dynamic thresholding scheme and sliding window for effective localization of adversarial patches. Such a design is inspired by the theoretically derived correlation between patch size and diffusion restoration error that is generalized across diverse patch attack scenarios. Finally, DiffPAD applies inpainting techniques to the original input images with the estimated patch region being masked. By integrating closed-form solutions for super-resolution restoration and image inpainting into the conditional reverse sampling process of a pre-trained diffusion model, DiffPAD obviates the need for text guidance or fine-tuning. Through comprehensive experiments, we demonstrate that DiffPAD not only achieves state-of-the-art adversarial robustness against patch attacks but also excels in recovering naturalistic images without patch remnants.

Ensemble Neural Networks for Remaining Useful Life (RUL) Prediction

A core part of maintenance planning is a monitoring system that provides a good prognosis on health and degradation, often expressed as remaining useful life (RUL). Most of the current data-driven approaches for RUL prediction focus on single-point prediction. These point prediction approaches do not include the probabilistic nature of the failure. The few probabilistic approaches to date either include the aleatoric uncertainty (which originates from the system), or the epistemic uncertainty (which originates from the model parameters), or both simultaneously as a total uncertainty. Here, we propose ensemble neural networks for probabilistic RUL predictions which considers both uncertainties and decouples these two uncertainties. These decoupled uncertainties are vital in knowing and interpreting the confidence of the predictions. This method is tested on NASA's turbofan jet engine CMAPSS data-set. Our results show how these uncertainties can be modeled and how to disentangle the contribution of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty. Additionally, our approach is evaluated on different metrics and compared against the current state-of-the-art methods.