To produce images that are suitable for display, tone-mapping is widely used in digital cameras to map linear color measurements into narrow gamuts with limited dynamic range. This introduces non-linear distortion that must be undone, through a radiometric calibration process, before computer vision systems can analyze such photographs radiometrically. This paper considers the inherent uncertainty of undoing the effects of tone-mapping. We observe that this uncertainty varies substantially across color space, making some pixels more reliable than others. We introduce a model for this uncertainty and a method for fitting it to a given camera or imaging pipeline. Once fit, the model provides for each pixel in a tone-mapped digital photograph a probability distribution over linear scene colors that could have induced it. We demonstrate how these distributions can be useful for visual inference by incorporating them into estimation algorithms for a representative set of vision tasks.