Deep Stochastic Kinematic Models for Probabilistic Motion Forecasting in Traffic

Kinematic priors have shown to be helpful in boosting generalization and performance in prior work on trajectory forecasting. Specifically, kinematic priors have been applied such that models predict a set of actions instead of future output trajectories. By unrolling predicted trajectories via time integration and models of kinematic dynamics, predicted trajectories are not only kinematically feasible on average but also relate uncertainty from one timestep to the next. With benchmarks supporting prediction of multiple trajectory predictions, deterministic kinematic priors are less and less applicable to current models. We propose a method for integrating probabilistic kinematic priors into modern probabilistic trajectory forecasting architectures. The primary difference between our work and previous techniques is the analytical quantification of variance, or uncertainty, in predicted trajectories. With negligible additional computational overhead, our method can be generalized and easily implemented with any modern probabilistic method that models candidate trajectories as Gaussian distributions. In particular, our method works especially well in unoptimal settings, such as with small datasets or in the presence of noise. Our method achieves up to a 50% performance boost in small dataset settings and up to an 8% performance boost in large-scale learning compared to previous kinematic prediction methods on SOTA trajectory forecasting architectures out-of-the-box, with minimal fine-tuning. In this paper, we show four analytical formulations of probabilistic kinematic priors which can be used for any Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM)-based deep learning models, quantify the error bound on linear approximations applied during trajectory unrolling, and show results to evaluate each formulation in trajectory forecasting.