COSTAR: Improved Temporal Counterfactual Estimation with Self-Supervised Learning

Estimation of temporal counterfactual outcomes from observed history is crucial for decision-making in many domains such as healthcare and e-commerce, particularly when randomized controlled trials (RCTs) suffer from high cost or impracticality. For real-world datasets, modeling time-dependent confounders is challenging due to complex dynamics, long-range dependencies and both past treatments and covariates affecting the future outcomes. In this paper, we introduce COunterfactual Self-supervised TrAnsformeR (COSTAR), a novel approach that integrates self-supervised learning for improved historical representations. The proposed framework combines temporal and feature-wise attention with a component-wise contrastive loss tailored for temporal treatment outcome observations, yielding superior performance in estimation accuracy and generalization to out-of-distribution data compared to existing models, as validated by empirical results on both synthetic and real-world datasets.