Ballooning Multi-Armed Bandits

In this paper, we introduce Ballooning Multi-Armed Bandits (BL-MAB), a novel extension to the classical stochastic MAB model. In BL-MAB model, the set of available arms grows (or balloons) over time. In contrast to the classical MAB setting where the regret is computed with respect to the best arm overall, the regret in a BL-MAB setting is computed with respect to the best available arm at each time. We first observe that the existing MAB algorithms are not regret-optimal for the BL-MAB model. We show that if the best arm is equally likely to arrive at any time, a sub-linear regret cannot be achieved, irrespective of the arrival of other arms. We further show that if the best arm is more likely to arrive in the early rounds, one can achieve sub-linear regret. Our proposed algorithm determines (1) the fraction of the time horizon for which the newly arriving arms should be explored and (2) the sequence of arm pulls in the exploitation phase from among the explored arms. Making reasonable assumptions on the arrival distribution of the best arm in terms of the thinness of the distribution's tail, we prove that the proposed algorithm achieves sub-linear instance-independent regret. We further quantify the explicit dependence of regret on the arrival distribution parameters. We reinforce our theoretical findings with extensive simulation results.