Risk-Based Thresholding for Reliable Anomaly Detection in Concentrated Solar Power Plants

Efficient and reliable operation of Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) plants is essential for meeting the growing demand for sustainable energy. However, high-temperature solar receivers face severe operational risks, such as freezing, deformation, and corrosion, resulting in costly downtime and maintenance. To monitor CSP plants, cameras mounted on solar receivers record infrared images at irregular intervals ranging from one to five minutes throughout the day. Anomalous images can be detected by thresholding an anomaly score, where the threshold is chosen to optimize metrics such as the F1-score on a validation set. This work proposes a framework for generating more reliable decision thresholds with finite-sample coverage guarantees on any chosen risk function. Our framework also incorporates an abstention mechanism, allowing high-risk predictions to be deferred to domain experts. Second, we propose a density forecasting method to estimate the likelihood of an observed image given a sequence of previously observed images, using this likelihood as its anomaly score. Third, we analyze the deployment results of our framework across multiple training scenarios over several months for two CSP plants. This analysis provides valuable insights to our industry partner for optimizing maintenance operations. Finally, given the confidential nature of our dataset, we provide an extended simulated dataset, leveraging recent advancements in generative modeling to create diverse thermal images that simulate multiple CSP plants. Our code is publicly available.

Segmentation-Guided CT Synthesis with Pixel-Wise Conformal Uncertainty Bounds

Accurate dose calculations in proton therapy rely on high-quality CT images. While planning CTs (pCTs) serve as a reference for dosimetric planning, Cone Beam CT (CBCT) is used throughout Adaptive Radiotherapy (ART) to generate sCTs for improved dose calculations. Despite its lower cost and reduced radiation exposure advantages, CBCT suffers from severe artefacts and poor image quality, making it unsuitable for precise dosimetry. Deep learning-based CBCT-to-CT translation has emerged as a promising approach. Still, existing methods often introduce anatomical inconsistencies and lack reliable uncertainty estimates, limiting their clinical adoption. To bridge this gap, we propose STF-RUE, a novel framework integrating two key components. First, STF, a segmentation-guided CBCT-to-CT translation method that enhances anatomical consistency by leveraging segmentation priors extracted from pCTs. Second, RUE, a conformal prediction method that augments predicted CTs with pixel-wise conformal prediction intervals, providing clinicians with robust reliability indicator. Comprehensive experiments using UNet++ and Fast-DDPM on two benchmark datasets demonstrate that STF-RUE significantly improves translation accuracy, as measured by a novel soft-tissue-focused metric designed for precise dose computation. Additionally, STF-RUE provides better-calibrated uncertainty sets for synthetic CT, reinforcing trust in synthetic CTs. By addressing both anatomical fidelity and uncertainty quantification, STF-RUE marks a crucial step toward safer and more effective adaptive proton therapy. Code is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/cbct2ct_translation-B2D9/.

Multi-Output Conformal Regression: A Unified Comparative Study with New Conformity Scores

Quantifying uncertainty in multivariate regression is essential in many real-world applications, yet existing methods for constructing prediction regions often face limitations such as the inability to capture complex dependencies, lack of coverage guarantees, or high computational cost. Conformal prediction provides a robust framework for producing distribution-free prediction regions with finite-sample coverage guarantees. In this work, we present a unified comparative study of multi-output conformal methods, exploring their properties and interconnections. Based on our findings, we introduce two classes of conformity scores that achieve asymptotic conditional coverage: one is compatible with any generative model, and the other offers low computational cost by leveraging invertible generative models. Finally, we conduct a comprehensive empirical study across 32 tabular datasets to compare all the multi-output conformal methods considered in this work. All methods are implemented within a unified code base to ensure a fair and consistent comparison.