Efficient Propagation of Uncertainty via Reordering Monte Carlo Samples

Uncertainty analysis in the outcomes of model predictions is a key element in decision-based material design to establish confidence in the models and evaluate the fidelity of models. Uncertainty Propagation (UP) is a technique to determine model output uncertainties based on the uncertainty in its input variables. The most common and simplest approach to propagate the uncertainty from a model inputs to its outputs is by feeding a large number of samples to the model, known as Monte Carlo (MC) simulation which requires exhaustive sampling from the input variable distributions. However, MC simulations are impractical when models are computationally expensive. In this work, we investigate the hypothesis that while all samples are useful on average, some samples must be more useful than others. Thus, reordering MC samples and propagating more useful samples can lead to enhanced convergence in statistics of interest earlier and thus, reducing the computational burden of UP process. Here, we introduce a methodology to adaptively reorder MC samples and show how it results in reduction of computational expense of UP processes.

Deep Multimodal Transfer-Learned Regression in Data-Poor Domains

In many real-world applications of deep learning, estimation of a target may rely on various types of input data modes, such as audio-video, image-text, etc. This task can be further complicated by a lack of sufficient data. Here we propose a Deep Multimodal Transfer-Learned Regressor (DMTL-R) for multimodal learning of image and feature data in a deep regression architecture effective at predicting target parameters in data-poor domains. Our model is capable of fine-tuning a given set of pre-trained CNN weights on a small amount of training image data, while simultaneously conditioning on feature information from a complimentary data mode during network training, yielding more accurate single-target or multi-target regression than can be achieved using the images or the features alone. We present results using phase-field simulation microstructure images with an accompanying set of physical features, using pre-trained weights from various well-known CNN architectures, which demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed multimodal approach.