A Network Simulation of OTC Markets with Multiple Agents

We present a novel agent-based approach to simulating an over-the-counter (OTC) financial market in which trades are intermediated solely by market makers and agent visibility is constrained to a network topology. Dynamics, such as changes in price, result from agent-level interactions that ubiquitously occur via market maker agents acting as liquidity providers. Two additional agents are considered: trend investors use a deep convolutional neural network paired with a deep Q-learning framework to inform trading decisions by analysing price history; and value investors use a static price-target to determine their trade directions and sizes. We demonstrate that our novel inclusion of a network topology with market makers facilitates explorations into various market structures. First, we present the model and an overview of its mechanics. Second, we validate our findings via comparison to the real-world: we demonstrate a fat-tailed distribution of price changes, auto-correlated volatility, a skew negatively correlated to market maker positioning, predictable price-history patterns and more. Finally, we demonstrate that our network-based model can lend insights into the effect of market-structure on price-action. For example, we show that markets with sparsely connected intermediaries can have a critical point of fragmentation, beyond which the market forms distinct clusters and arbitrage becomes rapidly possible between the prices of different market makers. A discussion is provided on future work that would be beneficial.

ChatLogo: A Large Language Model-Driven Hybrid Natural-Programming Language Interface for Agent-based Modeling and Programming

Building on Papert (1980)'s idea of children talking to computers, we propose ChatLogo, a hybrid natural-programming language interface for agent-based modeling and programming. We build upon previous efforts to scaffold ABM & P learning and recent development in leveraging large language models (LLMs) to support the learning of computational programming. ChatLogo aims to support conversations with computers in a mix of natural and programming languages, provide a more user-friendly interface for novice learners, and keep the technical system from over-reliance on any single LLM. We introduced the main elements of our design: an intelligent command center, and a conversational interface to support creative expression. We discussed the presentation format and future work. Responding to the challenges of supporting open-ended constructionist learning of ABM & P and leveraging LLMs for educational purposes, we contribute to the field by proposing the first constructionist LLM-driven interface to support computational and complex systems thinking.

Agent cognition through micro-simulations: Adaptive and tunable intelligence with NetLogo LevelSpace

We present a method of endowing agents in an agent-based model (ABM) with sophisticated cognitive capabilities and a naturally tunable level of intelligence. Often, ABMs use random behavior or greedy algorithms for maximizing objectives (such as a predator always chasing after the closest prey). However, random behavior is too simplistic in many circumstances and greedy algorithms, as well as classic AI planning techniques, can be brittle in the context of the unpredictable and emergent situations in which agents may find themselves. Our method, called agent-centric Monte Carlo cognition (ACMCC), centers around using a separate agent-based model to represent the agents' cognition. This model is then used by the agents in the primary model to predict the outcomes of their actions, and thus guide their behavior. To that end, we have implemented our method in the NetLogo agent-based modeling platform, using the recently released LevelSpace extension, which we developed to allow NetLogo models to interact with other NetLogo models. As an illustrative example, we extend the Wolf Sheep Predation model (included with NetLogo) by using ACMCC to guide animal behavior, and analyze the impact on agent performance and model dynamics. We find that ACMCC provides a reliable and understandable method of controlling agent intelligence, and has a large impact on agent performance and model dynamics even at low settings.