Recommendations for Comprehensive and Independent Evaluation of Machine Learning-Based Earth System Models

Machine learning (ML) is a revolutionary technology with demonstrable applications across multiple disciplines. Within the Earth science community, ML has been most visible for weather forecasting, producing forecasts that rival modern physics-based models. Given the importance of deepening our understanding and improving predictions of the Earth system on all time scales, efforts are now underway to develop forecasting models into Earth-system models (ESMs), capable of representing all components of the coupled Earth system (or their aggregated behavior) and their response to external changes. Modeling the Earth system is a much more difficult problem than weather forecasting, not least because the model must represent the alternate (e.g., future) coupled states of the system for which there are no historical observations. Given that the physical principles that enable predictions about the response of the Earth system are often not explicitly coded in these ML-based models, demonstrating the credibility of ML-based ESMs thus requires us to build evidence of their consistency with the physical system. To this end, this paper puts forward five recommendations to enhance comprehensive, standardized, and independent evaluation of ML-based ESMs to strengthen their credibility and promote their wider use.

Analyzing and Exploring Training Recipes for Large-Scale Transformer-Based Weather Prediction

The rapid rise of deep learning (DL) in numerical weather prediction (NWP) has led to a proliferation of models which forecast atmospheric variables with comparable or superior skill than traditional physics-based NWP. However, among these leading DL models, there is a wide variance in both the training settings and architecture used. Further, the lack of thorough ablation studies makes it hard to discern which components are most critical to success. In this work, we show that it is possible to attain high forecast skill even with relatively off-the-shelf architectures, simple training procedures, and moderate compute budgets. Specifically, we train a minimally modified SwinV2 transformer on ERA5 data, and find that it attains superior forecast skill when compared against IFS. We present some ablations on key aspects of the training pipeline, exploring different loss functions, model sizes and depths, and multi-step fine-tuning to investigate their effect. We also examine the model performance with metrics beyond the typical ACC and RMSE, and investigate how the performance scales with model size.