Probabilistic Scoring Lists for Interpretable Machine Learning

A scoring system is a simple decision model that checks a set of features, adds a certain number of points to a total score for each feature that is satisfied, and finally makes a decision by comparing the total score to a threshold. Scoring systems have a long history of active use in safety-critical domains such as healthcare and justice, where they provide guidance for making objective and accurate decisions. Given their genuine interpretability, the idea of learning scoring systems from data is obviously appealing from the perspective of explainable AI. In this paper, we propose a practically motivated extension of scoring systems called probabilistic scoring lists (PSL), as well as a method for learning PSLs from data. Instead of making a deterministic decision, a PSL represents uncertainty in the form of probability distributions, or, more generally, probability intervals. Moreover, in the spirit of decision lists, a PSL evaluates features one by one and stops as soon as a decision can be made with enough confidence. To evaluate our approach, we conduct a case study in the medical domain.

Reliable Part-of-Speech Tagging of Historical Corpora through Set-Valued Prediction

Syntactic annotation of corpora in the form of part-of-speech (POS) tags is a key requirement for both linguistic research and subsequent automated natural language processing (NLP) tasks. This problem is commonly tackled using machine learning methods, i.e., by training a POS tagger on a sufficiently large corpus of labeled data. While the problem of POS tagging can essentially be considered as solved for modern languages, historical corpora turn out to be much more difficult, especially due to the lack of native speakers and sparsity of training data. Moreover, most texts have no sentences as we know them today, nor a common orthography. These irregularities render the task of automated POS tagging more difficult and error-prone. Under these circumstances, instead of forcing the POS tagger to predict and commit to a single tag, it should be enabled to express its uncertainty. In this paper, we consider POS tagging within the framework of set-valued prediction, which allows the POS tagger to express its uncertainty via predicting a set of candidate POS tags instead of guessing a single one. The goal is to guarantee a high confidence that the correct POS tag is included while keeping the number of candidates small. In our experimental study, we find that extending state-of-the-art POS taggers to set-valued prediction yields more precise and robust taggings, especially for unknown words, i.e., words not occurring in the training data.