Probabilistic Forecasting for Dynamical Systems with Missing or Imperfect Data

The modeling of dynamical systems is essential in many fields, but applying machine learning techniques is often challenging due to incomplete or noisy data. This study introduces a variant of stochastic interpolation (SI) for probabilistic forecasting, estimating future states as distributions rather than single-point predictions. We explore its mathematical foundations and demonstrate its effectiveness on various dynamical systems, including the challenging WeatherBench dataset.

PEARL: Preconditioner Enhancement through Actor-critic Reinforcement Learning

We present PEARL (Preconditioner Enhancement through Actor-critic Reinforcement Learning), a novel approach to learning matrix preconditioners. Existing preconditioners such as Jacobi, Incomplete LU, and Algebraic Multigrid methods offer problem-specific advantages but rely heavily on hyperparameter tuning. Recent advances have explored using deep neural networks to learn preconditioners, though challenges such as misbehaved objective functions and costly training procedures remain. PEARL introduces a reinforcement learning approach for learning preconditioners, specifically, a contextual bandit formulation. The framework utilizes an actor-critic model, where the actor generates the incomplete Cholesky decomposition of preconditioners, and the critic evaluates them based on reward-specific feedback. To further guide the training, we design a dual-objective function, combining updates from the critic and condition number. PEARL contributes a generalizable preconditioner learning method, dynamic sparsity exploration, and cosine schedulers for improved stability and exploratory power. We compare our approach to traditional and neural preconditioners, demonstrating improved flexibility and iterative solving speed.

Deep Learning for Koopman Operator Estimation in Idealized Atmospheric Dynamics

Deep learning is revolutionizing weather forecasting, with new data-driven models achieving accuracy on par with operational physical models for medium-term predictions. However, these models often lack interpretability, making their underlying dynamics difficult to understand and explain. This paper proposes methodologies to estimate the Koopman operator, providing a linear representation of complex nonlinear dynamics to enhance the transparency of data-driven models. Despite its potential, applying the Koopman operator to large-scale problems, such as atmospheric modeling, remains challenging. This study aims to identify the limitations of existing methods, refine these models to overcome various bottlenecks, and introduce novel convolutional neural network architectures that capture simplified dynamics.