Uncertainty Quantification Metrics for Deep Regression

When deploying deep neural networks on robots or other physical systems, the learned model should reliably quantify predictive uncertainty. A reliable uncertainty allows downstream modules to reason about the safety of its actions. In this work, we address metrics for evaluating such an uncertainty. Specifically, we focus on regression tasks, and investigate Area Under Sparsification Error (AUSE), Calibration Error, Spearman's Rank Correlation, and Negative Log-Likelihood (NLL). Using synthetic regression datasets, we look into how those metrics behave under four typical types of uncertainty, their stability regarding the size of the test set, and reveal their strengths and weaknesses. Our results indicate that Calibration Error is the most stable and interpretable metric, but AUSE and NLL also have their respective use cases. We discourage the usage of Spearman's Rank Correlation for evaluating uncertainties and recommend replacing it with AUSE.

Out-of-Distribution Detection for Adaptive Computer Vision

It is well known that computer vision can be unreliable when faced with previously unseen imaging conditions. This paper proposes a method to adapt camera parameters according to a normalizing flow-based out-of-distibution detector. A small-scale study is conducted which shows that adapting camera parameters according to this out-of-distibution detector leads to an average increase of 3 to 4 percentage points in mAP, mAR and F1 performance metrics of a YOLOv4 object detector. As a secondary result, this paper also shows that it is possible to train a normalizing flow model for out-of-distribution detection on the COCO dataset, which is larger and more diverse than most benchmarks for out-of-distibution detectors.