Are KAN Effective for Identifying and Tracking Concept Drift in Time Series?

Dynamic concepts in time series are crucial for understanding complex systems such as financial markets, healthcare, and online activity logs. These concepts help reveal structures and behaviors in sequential data for better decision-making and forecasting. Existing models struggle with detecting and tracking concept drift due to limitations in interpretability and adaptability. This paper introduces Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KAN) into time series and proposes WormKAN, a KAN-based auto-encoder to address concept drift in co-evolving time series. WormKAN integrates the KAN-SR module, in which the encoder, decoder, and self-representation layer are built on KAN, along with a temporal constraint to capture concept transitions. These transitions, akin to passing through a "wormhole", are identified by abrupt changes in the latent space. Experiments show that KAN and KAN-based models (WormKAN) effectively segment time series into meaningful concepts, enhancing the identification and tracking of concept drifts.

LatentQGAN: A Hybrid QGAN with Classical Convolutional Autoencoder

Quantum machine learning consists in taking advantage of quantum computations to generate classical data. A potential application of quantum machine learning is to harness the power of quantum computers for generating classical data, a process essential to a multitude of applications such as enriching training datasets, anomaly detection, and risk management in finance. Given the success of Generative Adversarial Networks in classical image generation, the development of its quantum versions has been actively conducted. However, existing implementations on quantum computers often face significant challenges, such as scalability and training convergence issues. To address these issues, we propose LatentQGAN, a novel quantum model that uses a hybrid quantum-classical GAN coupled with an autoencoder. Although it was initially designed for image generation, the LatentQGAN approach holds potential for broader application across various practical data generation tasks. Experimental outcomes on both classical simulators and noisy intermediate scale quantum computers have demonstrated significant performance enhancements over existing quantum methods, alongside a significant reduction in quantum resources overhead.

Wormhole: Concept-Aware Deep Representation Learning for Co-Evolving Sequences

Identifying and understanding dynamic concepts in co-evolving sequences is crucial for analyzing complex systems such as IoT applications, financial markets, and online activity logs. These concepts provide valuable insights into the underlying structures and behaviors of sequential data, enabling better decision-making and forecasting. This paper introduces Wormhole, a novel deep representation learning framework that is concept-aware and designed for co-evolving time sequences. Our model presents a self-representation layer and a temporal smoothness constraint to ensure robust identification of dynamic concepts and their transitions. Additionally, concept transitions are detected by identifying abrupt changes in the latent space, signifying a shift to new behavior - akin to passing through a wormhole. This novel mechanism accurately discerns concepts within co-evolving sequences and pinpoints the exact locations of these wormholes, enhancing the interpretability of the learned representations. Experiments demonstrate that this method can effectively segment time series data into meaningful concepts, providing a valuable tool for analyzing complex temporal patterns and advancing the detection of concept drifts.

QuaCK-TSF: Quantum-Classical Kernelized Time Series Forecasting

Forecasting in probabilistic time series is a complex endeavor that extends beyond predicting future values to also quantifying the uncertainty inherent in these predictions. Gaussian process regression stands out as a Bayesian machine learning technique adept at addressing this multifaceted challenge. This paper introduces a novel approach that blends the robustness of this Bayesian technique with the nuanced insights provided by the kernel perspective on quantum models, aimed at advancing quantum kernelized probabilistic forecasting. We incorporate a quantum feature map inspired by Ising interactions and demonstrate its effectiveness in capturing the temporal dependencies critical for precise forecasting. The optimization of our model's hyperparameters circumvents the need for computationally intensive gradient descent by employing gradient-free Bayesian optimization. Comparative benchmarks against established classical kernel models are provided, affirming that our quantum-enhanced approach achieves competitive performance.

A Survey of Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) in Financial Time Series Forecasting

Artificial Intelligence (AI) models have reached a very significant level of accuracy. While their superior performance offers considerable benefits, their inherent complexity often decreases human trust, which slows their application in high-risk decision-making domains, such as finance. The field of eXplainable AI (XAI) seeks to bridge this gap, aiming to make AI models more understandable. This survey, focusing on published work from the past five years, categorizes XAI approaches that predict financial time series. In this paper, explainability and interpretability are distinguished, emphasizing the need to treat these concepts separately as they are not applied the same way in practice. Through clear definitions, a rigorous taxonomy of XAI approaches, a complementary characterization, and examples of XAI's application in the finance industry, this paper provides a comprehensive view of XAI's current role in finance. It can also serve as a guide for selecting the most appropriate XAI approach for future applications.

Psychological Profiling in Cybersecurity: A Look at LLMs and Psycholinguistic Features

The increasing sophistication of cyber threats necessitates innovative approaches to cybersecurity. In this paper, we explore the potential of psychological profiling techniques, particularly focusing on the utilization of Large Language Models (LLMs) and psycholinguistic features. We investigate the intersection of psychology and cybersecurity, discussing how LLMs can be employed to analyze textual data for identifying psychological traits of threat actors. We explore the incorporation of psycholinguistic features, such as linguistic patterns and emotional cues, into cybersecurity frameworks. \iffalse Through case studies and experiments, we discuss the effectiveness of these methods in enhancing threat detection and mitigation strategies.\fi Our research underscores the importance of integrating psychological perspectives into cybersecurity practices to bolster defense mechanisms against evolving threats.

DRNet: A Decision-Making Method for Autonomous Lane Changingwith Deep Reinforcement Learning

Machine learning techniques have outperformed numerous rule-based methods for decision-making in autonomous vehicles. Despite recent efforts, lane changing remains a major challenge, due to the complex driving scenarios and changeable social behaviors of surrounding vehicles. To help improve the state of the art, we propose to leveraging the emerging \underline{D}eep \underline{R}einforcement learning (DRL) approach for la\underline{NE} changing at the \underline{T}actical level. To this end, we present "DRNet", a novel and highly efficient DRL-based framework that enables a DRL agent to learn to drive by executing reasonable lane changing on simulated highways with an arbitrary number of lanes, and considering driving style of surrounding vehicles to make better decisions. Furthermore, to achieve a safe policy for decision-making, DRNet incorporates ideas from safety verification, the most important component of autonomous driving, to ensure that only safe actions are chosen at any time. The setting of our state representation and reward function enables the trained agent to take appropriate actions in a real-world-like simulator. Our DRL agent has the ability to learn the desired task without causing collisions and outperforms DDQN and other baseline models.

Successive Data Injection in Conditional Quantum GAN Applied to Time Series Anomaly Detection

Classical GAN architectures have shown interesting results for solving anomaly detection problems in general and for time series anomalies in particular, such as those arising in communication networks. In recent years, several quantum GAN architectures have been proposed in the literature. When detecting anomalies in time series using QGANs, huge challenges arise due to the limited number of qubits compared to the size of the data. To address these challenges, we propose a new high-dimensional encoding approach, named Successive Data Injection (SuDaI). In this approach, we explore a larger portion of the quantum state than that in the conventional angle encoding, the method used predominantly in the literature, through repeated data injections into the quantum state. SuDaI encoding allows us to adapt the QGAN for anomaly detection with network data of a much higher dimensionality than with the existing known QGANs implementations. In addition, SuDaI encoding applies to other types of high-dimensional time series and can be used in contexts beyond anomaly detection and QGANs, opening up therefore multiple fields of application.

Characterizing Financial Market Coverage using Artificial Intelligence

This paper scrutinizes a database of over 4900 YouTube videos to characterize financial market coverage. Financial market coverage generates a large number of videos. Therefore, watching these videos to derive actionable insights could be challenging and complex. In this paper, we leverage Whisper, a speech-to-text model from OpenAI, to generate a text corpus of market coverage videos from Bloomberg and Yahoo Finance. We employ natural language processing to extract insights regarding language use from the market coverage. Moreover, we examine the prominent presence of trending topics and their evolution over time, and the impacts that some individuals and organizations have on the financial market. Our characterization highlights the dynamics of the financial market coverage and provides valuable insights reflecting broad discussions regarding recent financial events and the world economy.

Neural forecasting at scale

We study the problem of efficiently scaling ensemble-based deep neural networks for time series (TS) forecasting on a large set of time series. Current state-of-the-art deep ensemble models have high memory and computational requirements, hampering their use to forecast millions of TS in practical scenarios. We propose N-BEATS(P), a global multivariate variant of the N-BEATS model designed to allow simultaneous training of multiple univariate TS forecasting models. Our model addresses the practical limitations of related models, reducing the training time by half and memory requirement by a factor of 5, while keeping the same level of accuracy. We have performed multiple experiments detailing the various ways to train our model and have obtained results that demonstrate its capacity to support zero-shot TS forecasting, i.e., to train a neural network on a source TS dataset and deploy it on a different target TS dataset without retraining, which provides an efficient and reliable solution to forecast at scale even in difficult forecasting conditions.