Epidemiological Model Calibration via Graybox Bayesian Optimization

In this study, we focus on developing efficient calibration methods via Bayesian decision-making for the family of compartmental epidemiological models. The existing calibration methods usually assume that the compartmental model is cheap in terms of its output and gradient evaluation, which may not hold in practice when extending them to more general settings. Therefore, we introduce model calibration methods based on a "graybox" Bayesian optimization (BO) scheme, more efficient calibration for general epidemiological models. This approach uses Gaussian processes as a surrogate to the expensive model, and leverages the functional structure of the compartmental model to enhance calibration performance. Additionally, we develop model calibration methods via a decoupled decision-making strategy for BO, which further exploits the decomposable nature of the functional structure. The calibration efficiencies of the multiple proposed schemes are evaluated based on various data generated by a compartmental model mimicking real-world epidemic processes, and real-world COVID-19 datasets. Experimental results demonstrate that our proposed graybox variants of BO schemes can efficiently calibrate computationally expensive models and further improve the calibration performance measured by the logarithm of mean square errors and achieve faster performance convergence in terms of BO iterations. We anticipate that the proposed calibration methods can be extended to enable fast calibration of more complex epidemiological models, such as the agent-based models.

GFlowNet Training by Policy Gradients

Generative Flow Networks (GFlowNets) have been shown effective to generate combinatorial objects with desired properties. We here propose a new GFlowNet training framework, with policy-dependent rewards, that bridges keeping flow balance of GFlowNets to optimizing the expected accumulated reward in traditional Reinforcement-Learning (RL). This enables the derivation of new policy-based GFlowNet training methods, in contrast to existing ones resembling value-based RL. It is known that the design of backward policies in GFlowNet training affects efficiency. We further develop a coupled training strategy that jointly solves GFlowNet forward policy training and backward policy design. Performance analysis is provided with a theoretical guarantee of our policy-based GFlowNet training. Experiments on both simulated and real-world datasets verify that our policy-based strategies provide advanced RL perspectives for robust gradient estimation to improve GFlowNet performance.