Global Fitting of the Response Surface via Estimating Multiple Contours of a Simulator

Computer simulators are nowadays widely used to understand complex physical systems in many areas such as aerospace, renewable energy, climate modeling, and manufacturing. One fundamental issue in the study of computer simulators is known as experimental design, that is, how to select the input settings where the computer simulator is run and the corresponding response is collected. Extra care should be taken in the selection process because computer simulators can be computationally expensive to run. The selection shall acknowledge and achieve the goal of the analysis. This article focuses on the goal of producing more accurate prediction which is important for risk assessment and decision making. We propose two new methods of design approaches that sequentially select input settings to achieve this goal. The approaches make novel applications of simultaneous and sequential contour estimations. Numerical examples are employed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approaches.

A new Bayesian ensemble of trees classifier for identifying multi-class labels in satellite images

Classification of satellite images is a key component of many remote sensing applications. One of the most important products of a raw satellite image is the classified map which labels the image pixels into meaningful classes. Though several parametric and non-parametric classifiers have been developed thus far, accurate labeling of the pixels still remains a challenge. In this paper, we propose a new reliable multiclass-classifier for identifying class labels of a satellite image in remote sensing applications. The proposed multiclass-classifier is a generalization of a binary classifier based on the flexible ensemble of regression trees model called Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART). We used three small areas from the LANDSAT 5 TM image, acquired on August 15, 2009 (path/row: 08/29, L1T product, UTM map projection) over Kings County, Nova Scotia, Canada to classify the land-use. Several prediction accuracy and uncertainty measures have been used to compare the reliability of the proposed classifier with the state-of-the-art classifiers in remote sensing.

A Short Note on Gaussian Process Modeling for Large Datasets using Graphics Processing Units

The graphics processing unit (GPU) has emerged as a powerful and cost effective processor for general performance computing. GPUs are capable of an order of magnitude more floating-point operations per second as compared to modern central processing units (CPUs), and thus provide a great deal of promise for computationally intensive statistical applications. Fitting complex statistical models with a large number of parameters and/or for large datasets is often very computationally expensive. In this study, we focus on Gaussian process (GP) models -- statistical models commonly used for emulating expensive computer simulators. We demonstrate that the computational cost of implementing GP models can be significantly reduced by using a CPU+GPU heterogeneous computing system over an analogous implementation on a traditional computing system with no GPU acceleration. Our small study suggests that GP models are fertile ground for further implementation on CPU+GPU systems.

Sequential Design for Computer Experiments with a Flexible Bayesian Additive Model

In computer experiments, a mathematical model implemented on a computer is used to represent complex physical phenomena. These models, known as computer simulators, enable experimental study of a virtual representation of the complex phenomena. Simulators can be thought of as complex functions that take many inputs and provide an output. Often these simulators are themselves expensive to compute, and may be approximated by "surrogate models" such as statistical regression models. In this paper we consider a new kind of surrogate model, a Bayesian ensemble of trees (Chipman et al. 2010), with the specific goal of learning enough about the simulator that a particular feature of the simulator can be estimated. We focus on identifying the simulator's global minimum. Utilizing the Bayesian version of the Expected Improvement criterion (Jones et al. 1998), we show that this ensemble is particularly effective when the simulator is ill-behaved, exhibiting nonstationarity or abrupt changes in the response. A number of illustrations of the approach are given, including a tidal power application.