HungerGist: An Interpretable Predictive Model for Food Insecurity

The escalating food insecurity in Africa, caused by factors such as war, climate change, and poverty, demonstrates the critical need for advanced early warning systems. Traditional methodologies, relying on expert-curated data encompassing climate, geography, and social disturbances, often fall short due to data limitations, hindering comprehensive analysis and potential discovery of new predictive factors. To address this, this paper introduces "HungerGist", a multi-task deep learning model utilizing news texts and NLP techniques. Using a corpus of over 53,000 news articles from nine African countries over four years, we demonstrate that our model, trained solely on news data, outperforms the baseline method trained on both traditional risk factors and human-curated keywords. In addition, our method has the ability to detect critical texts that contain interpretable signals known as "gists." Moreover, our examination of these gists indicates that this approach has the potential to reveal latent factors that would otherwise remain concealed in unstructured texts.

Tribe or Not? Critical Inspection of Group Differences Using TribalGram

With the rise of AI and data mining techniques, group profiling and group-level analysis have been increasingly used in many domains including policy making and direct marketing. In some cases, the statistics extracted from data may provide insights to a group's shared characteristics; in others, the group-level analysis can lead to problems including stereotyping and systematic oppression. How can analytic tools facilitate a more conscientious process in group analysis? In this work, we identify a set of accountable group analytics design guidelines to explicate the needs for group differentiation and preventing overgeneralization of a group. Following the design guidelines, we develop TribalGram, a visual analytic suite that leverages interpretable machine learning algorithms and visualization to offer inference assessment, model explanation, data corroboration, and sense-making. Through the interviews with domain experts, we showcase how our design and tools can bring a richer understanding of "groups" mined from the data.