Stabilizing black-box model selection with the inflated argmax

Model selection is the process of choosing from a class of candidate models given data. For instance, methods such as the LASSO and sparse identification of nonlinear dynamics (SINDy) formulate model selection as finding a sparse solution to a linear system of equations determined by training data. However, absent strong assumptions, such methods are highly unstable: if a single data point is removed from the training set, a different model may be selected. This paper presents a new approach to stabilizing model selection that leverages a combination of bagging and an "inflated" argmax operation. Our method selects a small collection of models that all fit the data, and it is stable in that, with high probability, the removal of any training point will result in a collection of selected models that overlaps with the original collection. In addition to developing theoretical guarantees, we illustrate this method in (a) a simulation in which strongly correlated covariates make standard LASSO model selection highly unstable and (b) a Lotka-Volterra model selection problem focused on identifying how competition in an ecosystem influences species' abundances. In both settings, the proposed method yields stable and compact collections of selected models, outperforming a variety of benchmarks.

Data Assimilation with Machine Learning Surrogate Models: A Case Study with FourCastNet

Modern data-driven surrogate models for weather forecasting provide accurate short-term predictions but inaccurate and nonphysical long-term forecasts. This paper investigates online weather prediction using machine learning surrogates supplemented with partial and noisy observations. We empirically demonstrate and theoretically justify that, despite the long-time instability of the surrogates and the sparsity of the observations, filtering estimates can remain accurate in the long-time horizon. As a case study, we integrate FourCastNet, a state-of-the-art weather surrogate model, within a variational data assimilation framework using partial, noisy ERA5 data. Our results show that filtering estimates remain accurate over a year-long assimilation window and provide effective initial conditions for forecasting tasks, including extreme event prediction.