Weather-Informed Probabilistic Forecasting and Scenario Generation in Power Systems

The integration of renewable energy sources (RES) into power grids presents significant challenges due to their intrinsic stochasticity and uncertainty, necessitating the development of new techniques for reliable and efficient forecasting. This paper proposes a method combining probabilistic forecasting and Gaussian copula for day-ahead prediction and scenario generation of load, wind, and solar power in high-dimensional contexts. By incorporating weather covariates and restoring spatio-temporal correlations, the proposed method enhances the reliability of probabilistic forecasts in RES. Extensive numerical experiments compare the effectiveness of different time series models, with performance evaluated using comprehensive metrics on a real-world and high-dimensional dataset from Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO). The results highlight the importance of weather information and demonstrate the efficacy of the Gaussian copula in generating realistic scenarios, with the proposed weather-informed Temporal Fusion Transformer (WI-TFT) model showing superior performance.

Compact Optimality Verification for Optimization Proxies

Recent years have witnessed increasing interest in optimization proxies, i.e., machine learning models that approximate the input-output mapping of parametric optimization problems and return near-optimal feasible solutions. Following recent work by (Nellikkath & Chatzivasileiadis, 2021), this paper reconsiders the optimality verification problem for optimization proxies, i.e., the determination of the worst-case optimality gap over the instance distribution. The paper proposes a compact formulation for optimality verification and a gradient-based primal heuristic that brings substantial computational benefits to the original formulation. The compact formulation is also more general and applies to non-convex optimization problems. The benefits of the compact formulation are demonstrated on large-scale DC Optimal Power Flow and knapsack problems.

Scalable Exact Verification of Optimization Proxies for Large-Scale Optimal Power Flow

Optimal Power Flow (OPF) is a valuable tool for power system operators, but it is a difficult problem to solve for large systems. Machine Learning (ML) algorithms, especially Neural Networks-based (NN) optimization proxies, have emerged as a promising new tool for solving OPF, by estimating the OPF solution much faster than traditional methods. However, these ML algorithms act as black boxes, and it is hard to assess their worst-case performance across the entire range of possible inputs than an OPF can have. Previous work has proposed a mixed-integer programming-based methodology to quantify the worst-case violations caused by a NN trained to estimate the OPF solution, throughout the entire input domain. This approach, however, does not scale well to large power systems and more complex NN models. This paper addresses these issues by proposing a scalable algorithm to compute worst-case violations of NN proxies used for approximating large power systems within a reasonable time limit. This will help build trust in ML models to be deployed in large industry-scale power grids.

Dual Lagrangian Learning for Conic Optimization

This paper presents Dual Lagrangian Learning (DLL), a principled learning methodology that combines conic duality theory with the representation power of ML models. DLL leverages conic duality to provide dual-feasible solutions, and therefore valid Lagrangian dual bounds, for parametric linear and nonlinear conic optimization problems. The paper introduces differentiable conic projection layers, a systematic dual completion procedure, and a self-supervised learning framework. The effectiveness of DLL is demonstrated on linear and nonlinear parametric optimization problems for which DLL provides valid dual bounds within 0.5% of optimality.

Dual Interior-Point Optimization Learning

This paper introduces Dual Interior Point Learning (DIPL) and Dual Supergradient Learning (DSL) to learn dual feasible solutions to parametric linear programs with bounded variables, which are pervasive across many industries. DIPL mimics a novel dual interior point algorithm while DSL mimics classical dual supergradient ascent. DIPL and DSL ensure dual feasibility by predicting dual variables associated with the constraints then exploiting the flexibility of the duals of the bound constraints. DIPL and DSL complement existing primal learning methods by providing a certificate of quality. They are shown to produce high-fidelity dual-feasible solutions to large-scale optimal power flow problems providing valid dual bounds under 0.5% optimality gap.

Learning Optimal Power Flow Value Functions with Input-Convex Neural Networks

The Optimal Power Flow (OPF) problem is integral to the functioning of power systems, aiming to optimize generation dispatch while adhering to technical and operational constraints. These constraints are far from straightforward; they involve intricate, non-convex considerations related to Alternating Current (AC) power flow, which are essential for the safety and practicality of electrical grids. However, solving the OPF problem for varying conditions within stringent time frames poses practical challenges. To address this, operators resort to model simplifications of varying accuracy. Unfortunately, better approximations (tight convex relaxations) are often computationally intractable. This research explores machine learning (ML) to learn convex approximate solutions for faster analysis in the online setting while still allowing for coupling into other convex dependent decision problems. By trading off a small amount of accuracy for substantial gains in speed, they enable the efficient exploration of vast solution spaces in these complex problems.

Dual Conic Proxies for AC Optimal Power Flow

In recent years, there has been significant interest in the development of machine learning-based optimization proxies for AC Optimal Power Flow (AC-OPF). Although significant progress has been achieved in predicting high-quality primal solutions, no existing learning-based approach can provide valid dual bounds for AC-OPF. This paper addresses this gap by training optimization proxies for a convex relaxation of AC-OPF. Namely, the paper considers a second-order cone (SOC) relaxation of ACOPF, and proposes a novel dual architecture that embeds a fast, differentiable (dual) feasibility recovery, thus providing valid dual bounds. The paper combines this new architecture with a self-supervised learning scheme, which alleviates the need for costly training data generation. Extensive numerical experiments on medium- and large-scale power grids demonstrate the efficiency and scalability of the proposed methodology.

Asset Bundling for Wind Power Forecasting

The growing penetration of intermittent, renewable generation in US power grids, especially wind and solar generation, results in increased operational uncertainty. In that context, accurate forecasts are critical, especially for wind generation, which exhibits large variability and is historically harder to predict. To overcome this challenge, this work proposes a novel Bundle-Predict-Reconcile (BPR) framework that integrates asset bundling, machine learning, and forecast reconciliation techniques. The BPR framework first learns an intermediate hierarchy level (the bundles), then predicts wind power at the asset, bundle, and fleet level, and finally reconciles all forecasts to ensure consistency. This approach effectively introduces an auxiliary learning task (predicting the bundle-level time series) to help the main learning tasks. The paper also introduces new asset-bundling criteria that capture the spatio-temporal dynamics of wind power time series. Extensive numerical experiments are conducted on an industry-size dataset of 283 wind farms in the MISO footprint. The experiments consider short-term and day-ahead forecasts, and evaluates a large variety of forecasting models that include weather predictions as covariates. The results demonstrate the benefits of BPR, which consistently and significantly improves forecast accuracy over baselines, especially at the fleet level.

End-to-End Feasible Optimization Proxies for Large-Scale Economic Dispatch

The paper proposes a novel End-to-End Learning and Repair (E2ELR) architecture for training optimization proxies for economic dispatch problems. E2ELR combines deep neural networks with closed-form, differentiable repair layers, thereby integrating learning and feasibility in an end-to-end fashion. E2ELR is also trained with self-supervised learning, removing the need for labeled data and the solving of numerous optimization problems offline. E2ELR is evaluated on industry-size power grids with tens of thousands of buses using an economic dispatch that co-optimizes energy and reserves. The results demonstrate that the self-supervised E2ELR achieves state-of-the-art performance, with optimality gaps that outperform other baselines by at least an order of magnitude.

Confidence-Aware Graph Neural Networks for Learning Reliability Assessment Commitments

Reliability Assessment Commitment (RAC) Optimization is increasingly important in grid operations due to larger shares of renewable generations in the generation mix and increased prediction errors. Independent System Operators (ISOs) also aim at using finer time granularities, longer time horizons, and possibly stochastic formulations for additional economic and reliability benefits. The goal of this paper is to address the computational challenges arising in extending the scope of RAC formulations. It presents RACLEARN that (1) uses Graph Neural Networks (GNN) to predict generator commitments and active line constraints, (2) associates a confidence value to each commitment prediction, (3) selects a subset of the high-confidence predictions, which are (4) repaired for feasibility, and (5) seeds a state-of-the-art optimization algorithm with the feasible predictions and the active constraints. Experimental results on exact RAC formulations used by the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) and an actual transmission network (8965 transmission lines, 6708 buses, 1890 generators, and 6262 load units) show that the RACLEARN framework can speed up RAC optimization by factors ranging from 2 to 4 with negligible loss in solution quality.